TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095355
Played Sep 8Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115113––––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 46 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Martin Cerny at 70.7%
46 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 47–17 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 17 of their 64 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-17 in 64
Cerny
Correct
gap of 30 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1858 vs Benes 1759
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 100% vs Benes 40%
Cerny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 80% vs Benes 60%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +5 · Benes -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.40 / Benes 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13095355
Cerny1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it85% 121 of 143
Benes2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 50 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back19% 15 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny7wins
AwayBenes3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%5 of 5
AwayBenes60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S2Cerny6Benes4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny5Benes5n = 10split evenly
S4Cerny5Benes2n = 7Cerny took 5 of 7
S5Cerny2Benes1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyBenesC − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.0+2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 838 vs 270 / 56857.5%47.5%482 / 838 vs 270 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.40/Benes 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:25M. Cerny—121110133P. Benes—10412111
LSep 2 · 12:25M. Cerny—41112952P. Benes—1131011113
WAug 31 · 12:25M. Cerny—115115113P. Benes—91121152
WAug 28 · 07:55M. Cerny—11911113P. Benes—611971
WAug 26 · 12:20M. Cerny—511811113P. Benes—11711832
WAug 25 · 12:25M. Cerny—1113113P. Benes—81150
WAug 19 · 10:30M. Cerny—131118113P. Benes—1172071
WAug 19 · 07:55M. Cerny—91111133P. Benes—1127111
LAug 18 · 10:55M. Cerny—4480P. Benes—1111113
LAug 16 · 15:20M. Cerny—5680P. Benes—1111113
M. Cerny10
WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460WSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113LSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky1.8391111113M. Cerny1.83118381
P. Benes10
WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101LSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 7 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.50119181P. Benes1.5071111113WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 09:25J. Benak1.73131111492P. Benes2.00154711113WSep 3 · 08:25P. Benes1.80101111133M. Brozek1.911289111WSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab2.10591171P. Benes1.6711116113
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