TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095366
Played Sep 8Finished
David Vesecky
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811511511––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Vesecky above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 56.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H David Vesecky 54–71 Martin Cerny David Vesecky has won 54 of their 125 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:45What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-71 in 125
Cerny
Correct
gap of 17 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vesecky 1585 vs Cerny 1854
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 268 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vesecky 20% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vesecky 20% vs Cerny 70%
Cerny
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vesecky +1 · Cerny +5
Cerny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVesecky 2.20 / Cerny 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Cerny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13095366
Vesecky2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog45% won 65 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back26% 21 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 42
Cerny1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it85% 121 of 143
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVesecky2wins
AwayCerny8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVesecky33.3%1 of 3
AwayCerny85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Vesecky3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Vesecky2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Vesecky5Cerny2n = 7Vesecky took 5 of 7
S5Vesecky1Cerny3n = 4Cerny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeseckyCernyV − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.740.4−6.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeseckyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 680 vs 481 / 83756.9%57.5%387 / 680 vs 481 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyVesecky 2.20/Cerny 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 12:25D. Vesecky—4460M. Cerny—1111113
WSep 6 · 06:55D. Vesecky—91111113M. Cerny—118381
LSep 2 · 11:25D. Vesecky—111141282M. Cerny—1391110113
LAug 31 · 14:45D. Vesecky—5750M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 31 · 10:55D. Vesecky—111461352M. Cerny—5161111113
LAug 28 · 06:55D. Vesecky—76100M. Cerny—1111123
LAug 27 · 08:25D. Vesecky—631131M. Cerny—11116113
LAug 26 · 14:05D. Vesecky—711381M. Cerny—11411113
LAug 26 · 11:20D. Vesecky—118101162M. Cerny—411126113
WAug 23 · 10:50D. Vesecky—115911123M. Cerny—911115102
D. Vesecky10
WSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113WSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111WSep 7 · 13:58J. Zacharda2.0021911392D. Vesecky1.731117211113LSep 7 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.631111113D. Vesecky1.449680LSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460LSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 08:55D. Vesecky1.7391080J. Benak2.001112113LSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173
M. Cerny10
WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460WSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda2.385550M. Cerny1.531111113WSep 6 · 10:24J. Benak2.104580M. Cerny1.671111113WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113LSep 6 · 08:25M. Cerny1.61912971J. Benak2.20111011113
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