TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13112445
Played Sep 11Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181189116111210
Martin Cerny
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:45 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 97 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Martin Cerny at 64.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 13–16 Martin Cerny Jachym Zacharda has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:45What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-16 in 29
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1589 vs Cerny 1895
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 306 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 20% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 20% vs Cerny 100%
Cerny
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda -3 · Cerny +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 2.75 / Cerny 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Cerny)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13112445
Zacharda2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 17 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Cerny1.40
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 174 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it86% 121 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda3wins
AwayCerny7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda75%3 of 4
AwayCerny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Zacharda4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Zacharda2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Zacharda2Cerny1n = 3Zacharda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaCernyZ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match26.832.8−6.0per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 256 vs 485 / 84146.5%57.7%119 / 256 vs 485 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyZacharda 2.75/Cerny 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda—10270M. Cerny—1211113
LSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda—5550M. Cerny—1111113
LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda—5670M. Cerny—1111113
WSep 3 · 19:55J. Zacharda—13127113M. Cerny—11101131
LSep 2 · 12:55J. Zacharda—8260M. Cerny—1111113
LAug 30 · 09:25J. Zacharda—1011671M. Cerny—12511113
LAug 25 · 14:25J. Zacharda—115101152M. Cerny—311129113
LAug 25 · 13:25J. Zacharda—5640M. Cerny—1111113
WAug 12 · 07:55J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—7660
WAug 7 · 13:25J. Zacharda—1111113M. Cerny—8780
J. Zacharda10
LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111WSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 13:58J. Zacharda2.0021911392D. Vesecky1.731117211113WSep 7 · 12:55J. Zacharda2.631111113D. Vesecky1.449680LSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113
M. Cerny10
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090WSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.731111113D. Vesecky2.004460
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