TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122290
Played Sep 13Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3111012116711––
David Bochnak
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held David Bochnak at 61.6%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 16–41 David Bochnak Jan Kocab has won 16 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Bochnak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-41 in 57
Bochnak
Correct
gap of 25 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1607 vs Bochnak 1862
Bochnak
Correct
both rated, 255 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 60% vs Bochnak 80%
Bochnak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 60% vs Bochnak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab -1 · Bochnak +3
Bochnak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 3.40 / Bochnak 1.30
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Bochnak)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13122290
Kocab3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 24 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Bochnak1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 121 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 92 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab1wins
AwayBochnak9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBochnak100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab2Bochnak8n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S2Kocab3Bochnak7n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S3Kocab4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S4Kocab3Bochnak4n = 7Bochnak took 4 of 7
S5Kocab0Bochnak3n = 3Bochnak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBochnakK − BBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.040.5−8.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 269 vs 365 / 58548.3%62.4%130 / 269 vs 365 / 585Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakKocab 3.40/Bochnak 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bochnak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab313101171D. Bochnak4011126113
LAug 30 · 08:55J. Kocab411113891D. Bochnak46131111113
LAug 27 · 07:55J. Kocab3673111322D. Bochnak531111911113
LAug 23 · 10:20J. Kocab4711911792D. Bochnak47711711113
LAug 20 · 18:55J. Kocab228860D. Bochnak331111113
LAug 16 · 15:50J. Kocab187740D. Bochnak331111113
LJul 4 · 20:55J. Kocab28831251D. Bochnak43111110113
WJan 2 · 17:55J. Kocab4211128113D. Bochnak333101191
LJan 1 · 13:25J. Kocab3561141132D. Bochnak43114116113
LNov 30 · 18:50J. Kocab2055100D. Bochnak341111123
J. Kocab10
LSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113WSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153WSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492LSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090LSep 7 · 13:25J. Kocab3.0010680M. Cerny1.361211113WSep 7 · 11:55J. Zacharda1.8071040J. Kocab1.911112113WSep 7 · 11:25D. Vesecky2.0011740J. Kocab1.731311113LSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes1.5711611133J. Kocab2.259117111WSep 3 · 08:55J. Kocab1.73111011113M. Brozek2.00512341
D. Bochnak10
WSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101WSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113WSep 6 · 07:55D. Vesecky2.25411112152D. Bochnak1.57118211173LSep 6 · 07:25J. Benak2.631210113143D. Bochnak1.441012811122WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak1.40991111123J. Zacharda2.75111194102WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.361410511113J. Zacharda3.00121211572
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