TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13134434
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
114113611911117
Pavel Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 84 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jan Kocab at 55.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 22–20 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kocab beat Benes 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:57What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-20 in 42
Kocab
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1651 vs Benes 1705
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 60% vs Benes 40%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 50% vs Benes 30%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +3 · Benes -1
Kocab
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Benes)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13134434
Kocab2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 24 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Benes1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 72 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab2wins
AwayBenes8wins
Benes leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Kocab3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Kocab4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S4Kocab1Benes4n = 5Benes took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBenesK − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.035.6−5.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 267 vs 267 / 56447.6%47.3%127 / 267 vs 267 / 564Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKocab 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 09:25J. Kocab4211911113P. Benes36911971
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Kocab389117111P. Benes4111611133
LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab32591171P. Benes3911116113
LSep 1 · 10:30J. Kocab1851030P. Benes341112113
LSep 1 · 07:55J. Kocab2461080P. Benes341112113
LAug 31 · 14:15J. Kocab34881171P. Benes4011117113
LAug 31 · 11:25J. Kocab248880P. Benes331111113
LAug 25 · 13:53J. Kocab32811491P. Benes4011711113
LAug 25 · 12:55J. Kocab199550P. Benes331111113
WAug 24 · 07:25J. Kocab371115113P. Benes2671360
J. Kocab10
WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113LSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113WSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153
P. Benes10
LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101
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