TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131559
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116118811611611
Pavel Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Michal Brozek at 58.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 25–32 Pavel Benes Michal Brozek has won 25 of their 57 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-32 in 57
Benes
Correct
gap of 7 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1760 vs Benes 1734
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 80% vs Benes 20%
Brozek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 80% vs Benes 30%
Brozek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +4 · Benes -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brozek)+0.6pp
TT Cup · #13131559
Brozek1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite58% won 145 of 252
Up 2–0, closes it86% 80 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Benes2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 48 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek5wins
AwayBenes5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek71.4%5 of 7
AwayBenes100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek7Benes3n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S2Brozek3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Brozek7Benes3n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Brozek2Benes7n = 9Benes took 7 of 9
S5Brozek2Benes1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekBenesBrozek − BenesBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.339.5+0.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime536 / 1022 vs 267 / 56352.5%47.4%536 / 1022 vs 267 / 563Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek4211118662P. Benes47681111113
WSep 14 · 16:25M. Brozek3811511113P. Benes32911571
LSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek30511681P. Benes4011711113
LSep 3 · 08:25M. Brozek401289111P. Benes45101111133
WSep 1 · 08:55M. Brozek46118114123P. Benes46611811102
WAug 24 · 10:04M. Brozek331111113P. Benes184950
WAug 24 · 08:55M. Brozek3611311113P. Benes31811481
WAug 20 · 10:50M. Brozek521210118113P. Benes49101281182
LAug 15 · 22:28M. Brozek4511141191P. Benes4513165113
LAug 15 · 21:25M. Brozek4111111181P. Benes4213135113
M. Brozek10
WSep 14 · 17:04M. Brozek1.8011115113D. Hyza1.91761141WSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113WSep 14 · 15:25M. Brozek1.831111113D. Hyza1.833850WSep 9 · 21:50M. Kulisek2.0078100M. Brozek1.731111123LSep 9 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.1041111113M. Brozek1.67118651WSep 9 · 19:50M. Brozek1.571112113O. Fiklik2.2561070WSep 9 · 18:20M. Sulc3.0067120M. Brozek1.361111143LSep 9 · 10:25M. Brozek1.4511510111A. Rek2.6061112133WSep 9 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.256670M. Brozek1.571111113WSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961
P. Benes10
WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101LSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113
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