TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132121
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111191012811––
Pavel Benes
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 55.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 1–1 Pavel Benes Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rek 1644 vs Benes 1712
Benes
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Benes 40%
Rek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Benes 30%
Rek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Benes +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Rek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.61 / Benes 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Rek)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13132121
Rek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 101 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it72% 72 of 100
Benes2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 48 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRek1wins
AwayBenes1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRekBenesR − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.536.0+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime310 / 533 vs 265 / 56158.2%47.2%310 / 533 vs 265 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.61/Benes 2.20
Miss
What we said
55.5%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 15 · 19:25A. Rek4699121152P. Benes511111108113
WJun 25 · 13:25A. Rek331111113P. Benes217860
A. Rek10
LSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113WSep 11 · 14:25A. Rek1.521112118113O. Fiklik2.35131071182WSep 11 · 13:25D. Hyza1.91113741A. Rek1.8071111113WSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek1.571111123O. Fiklik2.2565100WSep 11 · 10:55V. Jr2.38611491A. Rek1.5311811113WSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113LSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262LSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 10:25M. Brozek1.4511510111A. Rek2.6061112133
P. Benes10
WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101LSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113
Upcoming Matches
A. Rek
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P. Benes
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