TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115286
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131210117811118
Ondrej Fiklik
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Ondrej Fiklik below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 61.9%
102 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 32–21 Ondrej Fiklik Ondrej Fiklik has won 21 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Rek beat Fiklik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-21 in 53
Rek
Correct
gap of 11 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1659 vs Fiklik 1500
Rek
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 80% vs Fiklik 40%
Rek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 60% vs Fiklik 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek +4 · Fiklik +1
Rek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.52 / Fiklik 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Rek)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13115286
Rek1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 48 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Fiklik2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 128 of 324
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 177
Down 0–2, comes back12% 13 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek6wins
AwayFiklik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek71.4%5 of 7
AwayFiklik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek7Fiklik3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Rek8Fiklik2n = 10Rek took 8 of 10
S3Rek3Fiklik7n = 10Fiklik took 7 of 10
S4Rek4Fiklik3n = 7Rek took 4 of 7
S5Rek2Fiklik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekFiklikR − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.736.1+2.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekFiklikBasisWin rate · lifetime317 / 544 vs 560 / 122458.3%45.8%317 / 544 vs 560 / 1224Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.52/Fiklik 2.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek341111123O. Fiklik2165100
LSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek4411881162O. Fiklik43511115113
WSep 5 · 22:03A. Rek341211113O. Fiklik2710890
LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek33811861O. Fiklik3711411113
WSep 1 · 12:25A. Rek341111123O. Fiklik2899100
WAug 21 · 12:25A. Rek3811115113O. Fiklik31841181
LAug 16 · 18:55A. Rek346111161O. Fiklik4211713113
WAug 15 · 16:25A. Rek43611411113O. Fiklik3811611372
LAug 8 · 17:25A. Rek511111131242O. Fiklik53671514113
WAug 7 · 11:20A. Rek42114511113O. Fiklik4191111372
A. Rek10
WSep 11 · 13:25D. Hyza1.91113741A. Rek1.8071111113WSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek1.571111123O. Fiklik2.2565100WSep 11 · 10:55V. Jr2.38611491A. Rek1.5311811113WSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113LSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262LSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 10:25M. Brozek1.4511510111A. Rek2.6061112133WSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961
O. Fiklik10
WSep 11 · 12:55V. Jr2.2571131132O. Fiklik1.57118119113LSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek1.571111123O. Fiklik2.2565100WSep 11 · 11:25O. Fiklik2.25811128143D. Hyza1.571161011122LSep 10 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.28116612113O. Fiklik3.15911111072LSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 11:55J. Vonasek1.915141591O. Fiklik1.80111613113WSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113LSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc2.20811116113O. Fiklik1.6111271152LSep 9 · 19:50M. Brozek1.571112113O. Fiklik2.2561070
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