TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101516
Played Sep 9Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:51 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 58.1%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 28–27 Adam Martin Rek Adam Martin Rek has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:51What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1647 vs Rek 1607
Langer
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 80% vs Rek 40%
Langer
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Rek 30%
Langer
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +1 · Rek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.20 / Rek 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Rek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101516
Langer2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Rek1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it69% 74 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger4wins
AwayRek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLangern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer2Rek8n = 10Rek took 8 of 10
S2Langer7Rek3n = 10Langer took 7 of 10
S3Langer4Rek6n = 10Rek took 6 of 10
S4Langer5Rek3n = 8Langer took 5 of 8
S5Langer1Rek3n = 4Rek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerRekL − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.0−0.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerRekBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 524 vs 314 / 54249.1%57.9%257 / 524 vs 314 / 542Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekLanger 2.20/Rek 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer—71181142A. Rek—113117113
LSep 1 · 12:55A. Langer—91111872A. Rek—117811113
WAug 30 · 16:20A. Langer—81112123A. Rek—11910101
WAug 15 · 18:25A. Langer—71111133A. Rek—1147111
WAug 15 · 16:55A. Langer—11118113A. Rek—771171
LAug 6 · 07:55A. Langer—81100A. Rek—1111123
LJul 31 · 13:23A. Langer—11911892A. Rek—911311113
LJul 31 · 12:50A. Langer—711861A. Rek—11411113
LJun 24 · 10:30A. Langer—8590A. Rek—1111113
WJun 24 · 06:55A. Langer—811711113A. Rek—11911592
A. Langer10
WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480LSep 9 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011121131M. Brozek1.5013148113WSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171
A. Rek10
LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961WSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112LSep 7 · 17:24A. Rek1.538790M. Sochor2.381111113WSep 7 · 16:20A. Rek1.441111143M. Sochor2.6339120LSep 7 · 15:20A. Rek1.537314101M. Sulc2.38111112123LSep 7 · 14:20A. Rek1.67511591D. Hyza2.1011711113WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113
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