TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089611
Played Sep 7Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412114119––––
David Sykora
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Langer above · David Sykora below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 61 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ales Langer at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 14–11 David Sykora David Sykora has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Langer
Correct
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1611 vs Sykora 1510
Langer
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 40% vs Sykora 20%
Langer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 40% vs Sykora 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -1 · Sykora -3
Sykora
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Langer) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sykora form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.61 / Sykora 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Langer)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13089611
Langer1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 72 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it72% 49 of 68
Sykora2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 42 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back33% 21 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back18% 6 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger4wins
AwaySykora6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger50%2 of 4
AwaySykora66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer4Sykora6n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S2Langer5Sykora5n = 10split evenly
S3Langer5Sykora5n = 10split evenly
S4Langer2Sykora5n = 7Sykora took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerSykoraL − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.6−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerSykoraBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 519 vs 295 / 54848.8%53.8%253 / 519 vs 295 / 548Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LangerLanger 1.61/Sykora 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.9%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 12:55A. Langer—91111123D. Sykora—1176101
LAug 6 · 08:55A. Langer—4161281D. Sykora—111414113
LAug 3 · 12:20A. Langer—8560D. Sykora—1111113
LJul 19 · 17:30A. Langer—11960D. Sykora—1311113
LJul 19 · 16:50A. Langer—11141041D. Sykora—51612113
LJul 14 · 14:05A. Langer—1111751D. Sykora—81311113
WJul 14 · 11:55A. Langer—3111510113D. Sykora—119131252
WJul 13 · 14:10A. Langer—11614113D. Sykora—6111231
LJul 13 · 12:50A. Langer—711117112D. Sykora—115911133
WJun 22 · 10:55A. Langer—1111123D. Sykora—97100
A. Langer10
LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113
D. Sykora10
LSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861LSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LAug 27 · 14:05J. Vonasek1.671111113D. Sykora2.106370LAug 27 · 12:55A. Langer1.8391111123D. Sykora1.831176101WAug 27 · 12:25J. Vonasek1.50111191192D. Sykora2.50913112113LAug 27 · 11:25D. Sykora1.8031110V. Jr1.911111133WAug 24 · 17:28D. Sykora1.80611118133V. Jr1.91113711112LAug 24 · 16:20D. Sykora1.67541171D. Tichy2.1011114113LAug 24 · 15:20D. Sykora1.44711761J. Cerny2.6311911113WAug 24 · 14:20D. Sykora1.831111113V. Jr1.838780
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