TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089615
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Beran
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114114––––
Ales Langer
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:41 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 47 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Ales Langer at 56.5%
47 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 5–5 Ales Langer Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:41What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Langer
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1494 vs Langer 1621
Langer
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Langer 60%
Langer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Langer 50%
Langer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +2 · Langer +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Langer)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 2.00 / Langer 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Langer)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13089615
Beran2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Langer1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 72 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it92% 34 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it72% 49 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBeran5wins
AwayLanger5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayLanger66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Langer6n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S2Beran5Langer5n = 10split evenly
S3Beran6Langer4n = 10Beran took 6 of 10
S4Beran4Langer4n = 8split evenly
S5Beran2Langer2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBeranLangerB − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.838.4+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 149 vs 254 / 52045.6%48.9%68 / 149 vs 254 / 520Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LangerBeran 2.00/Langer 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 08:55M. Beran—7670A. Langer—1111113
WAug 25 · 09:53M. Beran—612113113A. Langer—111081162
LAug 25 · 07:55M. Beran—119111072A. Langer—411712113
WJul 18 · 18:29M. Beran—1111113A. Langer—6630
LJul 18 · 17:25M. Beran—861171A. Langer—11119113
WJul 14 · 10:55M. Beran—11411123A. Langer—5118101
LJul 13 · 10:20M. Beran—591181A. Langer—11118113
WJul 11 · 06:55M. Beran—913411113A. Langer—111111872
LJun 16 · 08:25M. Beran—411111172A. Langer—117133113
WApr 2 · 12:55M. Beran—111116113A. Langer—551871
M. Beran10
WSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521
A. Langer10
WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer2.258240J. Vonasek1.571111113LSep 2 · 10:20A. Langer2.3871181142A. Rek1.53113117113
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