TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089666
Played Sep 7Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161186116111012
Matej Beran
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Matej Beran below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 59.4%
92 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 9–5 Matej Beran Matej Beran has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Jr
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1560 vs Beran 1481
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Beran 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 60% vs Beran 30%
Jr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Beran +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.67 / Beran 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jr)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13089666
Jr1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 54 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it68% 40 of 59
Beran2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr6wins
AwayBeran4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr100%5 of 5
AwayBeran80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Beran5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr2Beran8n = 10Beran took 8 of 10
S3Jr5Beran5n = 10split evenly
S4Jr7Beran0n = 7Jr took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrBeranJ − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.737.6+0.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrBeranBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 788 vs 68 / 14948.9%45.6%385 / 788 vs 68 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.67/Beran 2.10
Miss
What we said
59.4%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 07:25V. Jr—11119113M. Beran—191171
WAug 25 · 07:25V. Jr—11511113M. Beran—911861
LJul 14 · 14:35V. Jr—7370M. Beran—1111113
WJul 14 · 12:25V. Jr—1191211113M. Beran—81114692
LJul 13 · 13:39V. Jr—109141552M. Beran—12111213113
WJul 13 · 12:20V. Jr—11711153M. Beran—5115131
WJun 18 · 14:05V. Jr—12311113M. Beran—1011881
LJun 18 · 12:25V. Jr—11650M. Beran—1311113
WJun 16 · 08:55V. Jr—91211113M. Beran—1110751
LApr 2 · 10:55V. Jr—97110M. Beran—1111133
V. Jr10
WSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861WSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113WSep 1 · 11:25A. Rek1.50861161V. Jr2.5011118113
M. Beran10
WSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341LAug 31 · 14:20J. Cerny2.6371111113M. Beran1.44118521
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