TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095361
Played Sep 8Finished
David Sochor
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111184111113––
Ales Langer
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sochor above · Ales Langer below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 74 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Ales Langer at 56.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H David Sochor 7–8 Ales Langer David Sochor has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Langer
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sochor 1325 vs Langer 1597
Langer
Correct
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sochor 40% vs Langer 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sochor 30% vs Langer 50%
Langer
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sochor +1 · Langer -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Langer) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Langer form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSochor 2.50 / Langer 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Langer)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13095361
Sochor2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 9 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Langer1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 73 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 50 of 69
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSochor3wins
AwayLanger7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLanger leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSochor60%3 of 5
AwayLanger100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sochor5Langer5n = 10split evenly
S2Sochor1Langer9n = 10Langer took 9 of 10
S3Sochor4Langer6n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S4Sochor1Langer3n = 4Langer took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricSochorLangerS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.336.8−6.5per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSochorLangerBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 259 vs 254 / 52243.2%48.7%112 / 259 vs 254 / 522Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LangerSochor 2.50/Langer 1.50
Hit
What we said
65.3%
Langer · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 14:05D. Sochor—118147113A. Langer—911121162
WAug 13 · 10:55D. Sochor—1111123A. Langer—69100
LAug 11 · 14:09D. Sochor—3470A. Langer—1111113
LAug 11 · 12:55D. Sochor—11990A. Langer—1311113
LJul 17 · 10:20D. Sochor—8770A. Langer—1111113
LJul 12 · 06:20D. Sochor—113991A. Langer—81111113
WJul 2 · 06:55D. Sochor—11611123A. Langer—8119101
LJun 30 · 09:25D. Sochor—3980A. Langer—1111113
LJun 26 · 14:20D. Sochor—12811982A. Langer—1011511113
LJun 24 · 08:25D. Sochor—2740A. Langer—1111113
D. Sochor10
LSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113WSep 8 · 11:20D. Sochor2.25113113113D. Sykora1.5781191172WAug 13 · 14:05D. Sochor2.20118147113A. Langer1.61911121162LAug 13 · 12:55D. Sochor1.8094110O. Varecka1.911111133LAug 13 · 11:55D. Sochor2.5057100M. Sulc1.501111123WAug 13 · 10:55D. Sochor2.751111123A. Langer1.4069100LAug 11 · 14:09A. Langer1.501111113D. Sochor2.503470LAug 11 · 12:55A. Langer1.571311113D. Sochor2.2511990LAug 11 · 12:25M. Sulc1.6181111153D. Sochor2.201126131LAug 11 · 11:25D. Sochor1.83811591V. Jr1.8311811113
A. Langer10
WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171LAug 13 · 14:05D. Sochor2.20118147113A. Langer1.61911121162LAug 13 · 10:55D. Sochor2.751111123A. Langer1.4069100WAug 11 · 14:09A. Langer1.501111113D. Sochor2.503470WAug 11 · 12:55A. Langer1.571311113D. Sochor2.2511990
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