Ales Langer vs Vaclav Hejda Jr 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13095128

Played Sep 8Finished

Ales Langer

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

12108111210411118

Vaclav Hejda Jr

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Vaclav Hejda Jr to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAles Langer above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 8-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 4-11

Set 5 · 11-8

Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%

97 points played in total.

H2H Ales Langer 54–54 Vaclav Hejda Jr Dead even across their 108 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Head to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:52

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

54-54 in 108

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Langer 1601 vs Jr 1577

Langer

Correct

both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Langer 40% vs Jr 80%

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Langer 50% vs Jr 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Langer +1 · Jr +3

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsLanger 1.83 / Jr 1.83

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Jr)+4.0pp

TT Cup · #13095128

Langer1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

Jr1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeLanger4wins

AwayJr6wins

1 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeLanger75%3 of 4

AwayJr83.3%5 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Langer4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10

S2Langer5Jr5n = 10split evenly

S3Langer6Jr4n = 10Langer took 6 of 10

S4Langer4Jr5n = 9Jr took 5 of 9

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away550%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricLangerJrL − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.636.5+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricLangerJrBasisWin rate · lifetime253 / 519 vs 388 / 79248.8%49%253 / 519 vs 388 / 792Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Langer 1.83/Jr 1.83

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Jr · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Langer won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 7 · 10:20A. Langer—641171V. Jr—11116113

WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer—71411113V. Jr—1112391

WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer—1111113V. Jr—7480

LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer—11101251V. Jr—131210113

LAug 27 · 14:35A. Langer—8115101V. Jr—11611123

WAug 27 · 11:55A. Langer—11911113V. Jr—711251

LAug 26 · 10:40A. Langer—911881V. Jr—11811113

WAug 26 · 07:55A. Langer—11128123V. Jr—41011101

LAug 25 · 08:55A. Langer—119101192V. Jr—511125113

LAug 14 · 10:35A. Langer—1091191V. Jr—12117113

A. Langer10

WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123 WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133 LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113 LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440 WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490 LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171 WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982 WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531 LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133 LSep 4 · 10:20A. Langer2.5058100M. Brozek1.501111123

V. Jr10

WSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113 WSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780 WSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113 WSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861 LSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123 WSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171 LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391 LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480 LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180 LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113

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