TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092844
Played Sep 7Finished
Matej Beran
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311115114411511
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:27 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 76 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 55.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 6–9 Vaclav Hejda Jr Matej Beran has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Beran beat Jr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Jr
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1512 vs Jr 1557
Jr
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 60% vs Jr 40%
Beran
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 40% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +3 · Jr +1
Beran
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.91 / Jr 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Jr)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13092844
Beran1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back21% 3 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Jr1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 54 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it68% 40 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBeran4wins
AwayJr6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayJr83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Beran7Jr3n = 10Beran took 7 of 10
S3Beran5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Beran1Jr7n = 8Jr took 7 of 8
S5Beran2Jr1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBeranJrB − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.939.4−0.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranJrBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 148 vs 386 / 79045.3%48.9%67 / 148 vs 386 / 790Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrBeran 1.91/Jr 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 11:20M. Beran—681111123V. Jr—111166102
LAug 26 · 07:25M. Beran—191171V. Jr—11119113
LAug 25 · 07:25M. Beran—911861V. Jr—11511113
WJul 14 · 14:35M. Beran—1111113V. Jr—7370
LJul 14 · 12:25M. Beran—81114692V. Jr—1191211113
WJul 13 · 13:39M. Beran—12111213113V. Jr—109141552
LJul 13 · 12:20M. Beran—5115131V. Jr—11711153
LJun 18 · 14:05M. Beran—1011881V. Jr—12311113
WJun 18 · 12:25M. Beran—1311113V. Jr—11650
LJun 16 · 08:55M. Beran—1110751V. Jr—91211113
M. Beran10
WSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LAug 31 · 17:18M. Beran1.67711511102D. Tichy2.10117116123WAug 31 · 15:50M. Beran1.61111111113D. Tichy2.20551341
V. Jr10
WSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861LSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180LSep 2 · 10:50V. Jr2.00712571J. Vonasek1.73111011113WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr2.5011115183A. Rek1.487611161WSep 1 · 13:25V. Jr2.38511714113O. Fiklik1.53117111292WSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer1.8011101251V. Jr1.91131210113
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