TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099063
Played Sep 8Finished
Ales Langer
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511131210511118
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Hejda Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Langer above · Vaclav Hejda Jr below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 97 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vaclav Hejda Jr at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 55–54 Vaclav Hejda Jr Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 54 of their 109 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Langer beat Jr 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
55-54 in 109
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1620 vs Jr 1573
Langer
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 60% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer +3 · Jr +1
Langer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 1.85 / Jr 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13099063
Langer1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jr1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger5wins
AwayJr5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger80%4 of 5
AwayJr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S3Langer6Jr4n = 10Langer took 6 of 10
S4Langer4Jr5n = 9Jr took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerJrL − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.437.4+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerJrBasisWin rate · lifetime255 / 521 vs 389 / 79448.9%49%255 / 521 vs 389 / 794Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrLanger 1.85/Jr 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer—128124113V. Jr—1011101182
LSep 7 · 10:20A. Langer—641171V. Jr—11116113
WSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer—71411113V. Jr—1112391
WSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer—1111113V. Jr—7480
LSep 1 · 11:55A. Langer—11101251V. Jr—131210113
LAug 27 · 14:35A. Langer—8115101V. Jr—11611123
WAug 27 · 11:55A. Langer—11911113V. Jr—711251
LAug 26 · 10:40A. Langer—911881V. Jr—11811113
WAug 26 · 07:55A. Langer—11128123V. Jr—41011101
LAug 25 · 08:55A. Langer—119101192V. Jr—511125113
A. Langer10
WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982WSep 4 · 12:20A. Langer2.0011711113O. Fiklik1.73911531LSep 4 · 11:20A. Langer2.258116111D. Hyza1.5711911133
V. Jr10
WSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113LSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780WSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113WSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861LSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171LSep 2 · 13:19A. Langer1.8371411113V. Jr1.871112391LSep 2 · 12:20A. Langer1.801111113V. Jr1.917480LSep 2 · 11:50A. Rek1.501413113V. Jr2.50121180
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