TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101520
Played Sep 9Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114118––––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:51 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeJan Vonasek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Vonasek at 61.2%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 22–35 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 22 of their 57 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:51What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vonasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-35 in 57
Vonasek
Wrong
gap of 13 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1637 vs Vonasek 1555
Langer
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 80% vs Vonasek 20%
Langer
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 60% vs Vonasek 20%
Langer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -1 · Vonasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.38 / Vonasek 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13101520
Langer2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Vonasek1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 81 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it82% 58 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
8 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger20%1 of 5
AwayVonasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer5Vonasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Langer3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Langer2Vonasek8n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S4Langer7Vonasek2n = 9Langer took 7 of 9
S5Langer3Vonasek5n = 8Vonasek took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.846.2−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 523 vs 358 / 73249%48.9%256 / 523 vs 358 / 732Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.38/Vonasek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Langer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 10:55A. Langer—541111113J. Vonasek—11117762
WAug 26 · 06:55A. Langer—111184133J. Vonasek—541111112
LAug 7 · 06:55A. Langer—91121342J. Vonasek—1191111113
LJul 10 · 17:49A. Langer—1121011112J. Vonasek—311129133
LJul 10 · 16:20A. Langer—991131J. Vonasek—11117113
LJul 8 · 12:55A. Langer—11951272J. Vonasek—9111110113
LJun 3 · 10:45A. Langer—5850J. Vonasek—1111113
WJun 3 · 06:55A. Langer—911911113J. Vonasek—11811882
LMay 27 · 06:55A. Langer—1210711102J. Vonasek—1012118123
LMay 27 · 05:40A. Langer—1210711102J. Vonasek—1012118123
A. Langer10
LSep 9 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011121131M. Brozek1.5013148113WSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490LSep 7 · 10:20V. Jr1.8011116113A. Langer1.91641171WSep 4 · 13:29A. Langer2.006111011113O. Fiklik1.7311912982
J. Vonasek10
LSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871
Upcoming Matches
A. Langer
Nothing scheduled
J. Vonasek
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