TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101150
Played Sep 9Finished
Adam Martin Rek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811114115711111
Jan Vonasek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Martin Rek above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-1
Point 80 set 5, 11-1 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 59.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Adam Martin Rek 43–27 Jan Vonasek Jan Vonasek has won 27 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-27 in 70
Rek
Correct
gap of 16 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rek 1616 vs Vonasek 1535
Rek
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rek 40% vs Vonasek 20%
Rek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rek 30% vs Vonasek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rek -1 · Vonasek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRek 1.53 / Vonasek 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rek)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101150
Rek1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 105 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it69% 74 of 107
Vonasek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 68 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back15% 16 of 107
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRek8wins
AwayVonasek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRek85.7%6 of 7
AwayVonasek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rek7Vonasek3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S2Rek6Vonasek4n = 10Rek took 6 of 10
S3Rek7Vonasek3n = 10Rek took 7 of 10
S4Rek5Vonasek3n = 8Rek took 5 of 8
S5Rek2Vonasek1n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRekVonasekR − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.732.7+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRekVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 541 vs 357 / 73058%48.9%314 / 541 vs 357 / 730Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekRek 1.53/Vonasek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek—811117113J. Vonasek—11451112
WSep 4 · 09:59A. Rek—91111113J. Vonasek—111951
LSep 4 · 07:55A. Rek—111110842J. Vonasek—781211113
WSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek—11911113J. Vonasek—711871
WSep 2 · 12:50A. Rek—11114113J. Vonasek—641161
LAug 31 · 13:55A. Rek—981191J. Vonasek—11118113
WAug 31 · 12:50A. Rek—118511113J. Vonasek—51111562
WAug 17 · 14:10A. Rek—11911113J. Vonasek—611571
WAug 17 · 11:55A. Rek—1111123J. Vonasek—89100
WJun 20 · 22:25A. Rek—1113113J. Vonasek—61180
A. Rek10
LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961LSep 7 · 17:24A. Rek1.538790M. Sochor2.381111113WSep 7 · 16:20A. Rek1.441111143M. Sochor2.6339120LSep 7 · 15:20A. Rek1.537314101M. Sulc2.38111112123LSep 7 · 14:20A. Rek1.67511591D. Hyza2.1011711113WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113LSep 5 · 18:55A. Rek2.50861161M. Brozek1.5011116113WSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113
J. Vonasek10
LSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842LSep 4 · 06:55J. Vonasek2.75711120J. Benak1.401113143LSep 2 · 13:50A. Rek1.5011911113J. Vonasek2.40711871
Upcoming Matches
A. Rek
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J. Vonasek
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