TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111181
Played Sep 11Finished
Vaclav Hejda Jr
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611118411911––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Martin Rek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Hejda Jr above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 71 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Adam Martin Rek at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Hejda Jr 26–35 Adam Martin Rek Vaclav Hejda Jr has won 26 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-35 in 61
Rek
Correct
gap of 9 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1536 vs Rek 1600
Rek
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Rek 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Rek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Rek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Rek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.38 / Rek 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Rek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13111181
Jr2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 89 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Rek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it89% 48 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwayRek6wins
Rek leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr80%4 of 5
AwayRek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S2Jr5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S3Jr0Rek10n = 10Rek took 10 of 10
S4Jr4Rek2n = 6Jr took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrRekJ − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.035.5−1.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrRekBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 792 vs 314 / 54149%58%388 / 792 vs 314 / 541Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RekJr 2.38/Rek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Rek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 10:55V. Jr—611491A. Rek—11811113
LSep 2 · 11:50V. Jr—121180A. Rek—1413113
WSep 1 · 14:35V. Jr—11115183A. Rek—7611161
WSep 1 · 11:25V. Jr—11118113A. Rek—861161
LAug 31 · 11:20V. Jr—91180A. Rek—1113113
LAug 21 · 10:55V. Jr—11770A. Rek—1311113
WAug 17 · 11:25V. Jr—11127113A. Rek—3101141
LAug 17 · 10:25V. Jr—11106101A. Rek—91211123
LAug 17 · 08:25V. Jr—58100A. Rek—1111123
WJul 31 · 11:20V. Jr—11116113A. Rek—751161
V. Jr10
LSep 11 · 13:55V. Jr1.903111021D. Hyza1.8011912113LSep 11 · 12:55V. Jr2.2571131132O. Fiklik1.57118119113WSep 11 · 11:55V. Jr2.6361111133D. Hyza1.441195111LSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:20D. Sochor2.25261271V. Jr1.57111110113LSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780WSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113WSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861LSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123
A. Rek10
WSep 11 · 13:25D. Hyza1.91113741A. Rek1.8071111113WSep 11 · 12:25A. Rek1.571111123O. Fiklik2.2565100WSep 10 · 13:53J. Vonasek2.207111091A. Rek1.6111712113LSep 10 · 12:55J. Vonasek2.38118411113A. Rek1.5381111692LSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262LSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 10:25M. Brozek1.4511510111A. Rek2.6061112133WSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961WSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112
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