TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106823
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
2111161161012116
Adam Martin Rek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 86 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 55.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 1–1 Adam Martin Rek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:52What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1663 vs Rek 1614
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 80% vs Rek 60%
Nadvornik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 60% vs Rek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +3 · Rek -1
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Nadvornik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.67 / Rek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Nadvornik)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13106823
Nadvornik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 31 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Rek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog56% won 40 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back40% 12 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNadvornik1wins
AwayRek1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNadvornikRekN − RBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match39.540.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikRekBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 313 vs 312 / 53753.7%58.1%168 / 313 vs 312 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.67/Rek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik—81111113A. Rek—118871
LAug 6 · 09:25V. Nadvornik—41111662A. Rek—118611113
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752WAug 25 · 06:55A. Langer2.2061180V. Nadvornik1.611113113LAug 22 · 18:29J. Vonasek2.38111111113V. Nadvornik1.53135771
A. Rek10
LSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 10:25M. Brozek1.4511510111A. Rek2.6061112133WSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961WSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112LSep 7 · 17:24A. Rek1.538790M. Sochor2.381111113WSep 7 · 16:20A. Rek1.441111143M. Sochor2.6339120LSep 7 · 15:20A. Rek1.537314101M. Sulc2.38111112123LSep 7 · 14:20A. Rek1.67511591D. Hyza2.1011711113LSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871
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