TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103342
Played Sep 9Finished
Michal Brozek
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11651110121113––
Adam Martin Rek
Away
2.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:49 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeMichal Brozek to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Brozek above · Adam Martin Rek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 79 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Michal Brozek at 61.6%
79 points played in total.
H2H Michal Brozek 28–12 Adam Martin Rek Adam Martin Rek has won 12 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Brozek beat Rek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:49What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (64%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-12 in 40
Brozek
Wrong
gap of 16 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1719 vs Rek 1622
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 80% vs Rek 60%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Rek 40%
Brozek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +4 · Rek +1
Brozek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.45 / Rek 2.60
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Brozek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13103342
Brozek1.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it78% 115 of 148
Rek2.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog57% won 39 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back39% 11 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrozek7wins
AwayRek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBrozek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozek100%5 of 5
AwayRek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek5Rek5n = 10split evenly
S2Brozek6Rek4n = 10Brozek took 6 of 10
S3Brozek7Rek3n = 10Brozek took 7 of 10
S4Brozek6Rek1n = 7Brozek took 6 of 7
S5Brozek1Rek2n = 3Rek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrozekRekB − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.935.0+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekRekBasisWin rate · lifetime537 / 1029 vs 315 / 54352.2%58%537 / 1029 vs 315 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.45/Rek 2.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.2%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek—11911113A. Rek—911961
WSep 5 · 18:55M. Brozek—11116113A. Rek—861161
WAug 30 · 20:25M. Brozek—71111113A. Rek—118931
WAug 20 · 16:55M. Brozek—1211113A. Rek—10350
WAug 15 · 20:25M. Brozek—1111113A. Rek—8650
LAug 7 · 13:49M. Brozek—87111252A. Rek—1111810113
LAug 7 · 12:50M. Brozek—12780A. Rek—1411113
WJun 14 · 21:20M. Brozek—11128113A. Rek—5101171
WJun 14 · 19:20M. Brozek—611116113A. Rek—11941192
LJun 12 · 08:25M. Brozek—75121192A. Rek—1111109113
M. Brozek10
WSep 9 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.256670M. Brozek1.571111113WSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961WSep 9 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011121131M. Brozek1.5013148113WSep 7 · 22:14M. Kulisek2.20116881M. Brozek1.6181111113LSep 7 · 20:55M. Brozek1.619990M. Kulisek2.201111113LSep 7 · 19:55M. Brozek1.83511681P. Benes1.8311711113WSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100LSep 5 · 22:35M. Brozek1.751212881M. Kulisek1.95141011113LSep 5 · 21:25M. Kulisek2.0017101111113M. Brozek1.7319126672WSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871
A. Rek10
WSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113LSep 9 · 08:25M. Brozek1.4411911113A. Rek2.63911961WSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112LSep 7 · 17:24A. Rek1.538790M. Sochor2.381111113WSep 7 · 16:20A. Rek1.441111143M. Sochor2.6339120LSep 7 · 15:20A. Rek1.537314101M. Sulc2.38111112123LSep 7 · 14:20A. Rek1.67511591D. Hyza2.1011711113WSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113LSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 19:55A. Rek1.83119781M. Kulisek1.8381111113
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