TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110028
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Nadvornik
Home
1.28
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1196116111210117
Ondrej Fiklik
Away
3.15
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:04 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeVaclav Nadvornik to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Nadvornik above · Ondrej Fiklik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Vaclav Nadvornik at 64.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Nadvornik 31–13 Ondrej Fiklik Ondrej Fiklik has won 13 of their 44 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Nadvornik beat Fiklik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:04What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (71%)
Nadvornik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-13 in 44
Nadvornik
Correct
gap of 18 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nadvornik 1681 vs Fiklik 1511
Nadvornik
Correct
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadvornik 100% vs Fiklik 60%
Nadvornik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadvornik 70% vs Fiklik 40%
Nadvornik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadvornik +5 · Fiklik -1
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Nadvornik) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fiklik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadvornik 1.28 / Fiklik 3.15
Signal prob.76% / 25%
Edge (Nadvornik)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13110028
Nadvornik1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 31 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Fiklik3.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 127 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back21% 36 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back12% 13 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNadvornik8wins
AwayFiklik2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNadvornik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNadvornik100%7 of 7
AwayFiklik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nadvornik7Fiklik3n = 10Nadvornik took 7 of 10
S2Nadvornik9Fiklik1n = 10Nadvornik took 9 of 10
S3Nadvornik5Fiklik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nadvornik5Fiklik1n = 6Nadvornik took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNadvornikFiklikN − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.832.0+6.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadvornikFiklikBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 315 vs 558 / 121954%45.8%170 / 315 vs 558 / 1219Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadvornikNadvornik 1.28/Fiklik 3.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.5%
Nadvornik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 13:25V. Nadvornik—1111113O. Fiklik—5790
WAug 22 · 15:55V. Nadvornik—1113113O. Fiklik—81160
WMay 18 · 08:25V. Nadvornik—1111123O. Fiklik—68100
WMar 17 · 09:25V. Nadvornik—111111113O. Fiklik—881381
LFeb 27 · 08:50V. Nadvornik—95111172O. Fiklik—111179113
WFeb 26 · 08:25V. Nadvornik—11119113O. Fiklik—751161
WFeb 20 · 21:55V. Nadvornik—1111113O. Fiklik—1780
WFeb 19 · 08:50V. Nadvornik—11116113O. Fiklik—761191
LJan 23 · 09:25V. Nadvornik—611981O. Fiklik—11811113
WJan 19 · 09:25V. Nadvornik—1211413113O. Fiklik—146111132
V. Nadvornik10
WSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 12:25V. Nadvornik1.672111110113A. Rek2.1011661262WSep 10 · 10:55J. Vonasek2.509133111V. Nadvornik1.50111111133WSep 4 · 10:28J. Benak1.7114951182V. Nadvornik2.001211113113WSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123LSep 4 · 08:25J. Benak1.731111117113V. Nadvornik2.0013951152WSep 4 · 07:25V. Nadvornik1.8381111113A. Rek1.83118871LAug 25 · 10:23V. Nadvornik1.30106111762V. Jr3.401211315113LAug 25 · 09:25M. Beran2.381111113V. Nadvornik1.534570WAug 25 · 08:25V. Nadvornik1.25611911113V. Jr3.7511611752
O. Fiklik10
LSep 10 · 13:25O. Fiklik2.505790V. Nadvornik1.501111113WSep 10 · 11:55J. Vonasek1.915141591O. Fiklik1.80111613113WSep 10 · 11:25A. Rek1.5711881162O. Fiklik2.25511115113WSep 9 · 21:20M. Sulc1.3671111982O. Fiklik3.00114411113LSep 9 · 20:20M. Sulc2.20811116113O. Fiklik1.6111271152LSep 9 · 19:50M. Brozek1.571112113O. Fiklik2.2561070LSep 9 · 18:50O. Fiklik2.006660M. Kulisek1.731111113LSep 5 · 22:03O. Fiklik2.2510890A. Rek1.571211113WSep 5 · 20:55A. Rek1.61811861O. Fiklik2.2011411113LSep 5 · 20:25M. Brozek1.5711711113O. Fiklik2.25311871
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.