TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132073
Played Sep 15Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911119911711––
Jan Kocab
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Pavel Benes at 59.3%
78 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 20–21 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-21 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1734 vs Kocab 1621
Benes
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Kocab 50%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes +2 · Kocab +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Benes form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.67 / Kocab 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Benes)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13132073
Benes1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 72 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Kocab2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 24 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes9wins
AwayKocab1wins
Benes leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%8 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes8Kocab2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes5Kocab0n = 5Benes took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.729.3+6.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 563 vs 126 / 26647.4%47.4%267 / 563 vs 126 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.67/Kocab 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes4111611133J. Kocab389117111
WSep 3 · 06:55P. Benes3911116113J. Kocab32591171
WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes341112113J. Kocab1851030
WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes341112113J. Kocab2461080
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes4011117113J. Kocab34881171
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes331111113J. Kocab248880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes4011711113J. Kocab32811491
WAug 25 · 12:55P. Benes331111113J. Kocab199550
LAug 24 · 07:25P. Benes2671360J. Kocab371115113
WAug 21 · 09:25P. Benes3741111113J. Kocab35118971
P. Benes10
LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530LSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113LSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101
J. Kocab10
WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113LSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113WSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113WSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153
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