TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124996
Played Sep 13Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111161161210––
David Bochnak
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 69.5% is still 69.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
69.5%
69.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · David Bochnak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held David Bochnak at 69.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 30–52 David Bochnak Jachym Zacharda has won 30 of their 82 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-52 in 82
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 22 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1598 vs Bochnak 1810
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 212 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 40% vs Bochnak 60%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 30% vs Bochnak 70%
Bochnak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda +1 · Bochnak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 3.25 / Bochnak 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Bochnak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13124996
Zacharda3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Bochnak1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 121 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 92 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda3wins
AwayBochnak7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda50%2 of 4
AwayBochnak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda4Bochnak6n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S2Zacharda5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S3Zacharda5Bochnak5n = 10split evenly
S4Zacharda3Bochnak6n = 9Bochnak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaBochnakZ − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.140.6−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaBochnakBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 258 vs 368 / 59146.5%62.3%120 / 258 vs 368 / 591Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakZacharda 3.25/Bochnak 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.1%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda4281111123D. Bochnak331166101
LSep 4 · 22:09J. Zacharda45111194102D. Bochnak52991111123
LSep 4 · 20:55J. Zacharda47121211572D. Bochnak511410511113
WSep 3 · 22:33J. Zacharda4216114113D. Bochnak401491161
LSep 3 · 21:25J. Zacharda381011981D. Bochnak4212811113
LAug 30 · 08:25J. Zacharda163760D. Bochnak331111113
LJul 16 · 16:55J. Zacharda321141161D. Bochnak3913114113
WApr 17 · 16:55J. Zacharda3911611113D. Bochnak34911681
LApr 10 · 16:55J. Zacharda35961191D. Bochnak4111118113
LApr 6 · 17:25J. Zacharda25112751D. Bochnak4181111113
J. Zacharda10
LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113WSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111WSep 8 · 11:25P. Benes1.91511871J. Zacharda1.8011311113
D. Bochnak10
WSep 13 · 20:55M. Kulisek4.336720D. Bochnak1.201111113LSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153WSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133LSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:50D. Bochnak1.5011411113D. Hyza2.50311541WSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113WSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101WSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100
Upcoming Matches
J. Zacharda
D. Bochnak
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