TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13124262
Played Sep 13Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51112102111315––
Martin Cerny
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 79 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 66–58 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 58 of their 124 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 9h before this match
Bochnak beat Cerny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:30What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-58 in 124
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 8 in 124, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1851 vs Cerny 1901
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 80% vs Cerny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 70% vs Cerny 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak +1 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bochnak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.73 / Cerny 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bochnak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13124262
Bochnak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 121 of 197
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 92 of 115
Cerny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak5wins
AwayCerny5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak75%3 of 4
AwayCerny66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S2Bochnak2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Bochnak5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S4Bochnak5Cerny3n = 8Bochnak took 5 of 8
S5Bochnak4Cerny2n = 6Bochnak took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakCernyB − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.7−0.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 588 vs 482 / 83762.4%57.6%367 / 588 vs 482 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.73/Cerny 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 10:00D. Bochnak42341111133M. Cerny36111130112
LSep 13 · 08:50D. Bochnak4161111672M. Cerny45114811113
LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak199640M. Cerny331111113
LSep 4 · 19:55D. Bochnak4911991282M. Cerny475111110103
WSep 3 · 18:55D. Bochnak451011112113M. Cerny4412761182
LAug 30 · 10:33D. Bochnak203890M. Cerny331111113
LAug 30 · 07:25D. Bochnak36991171M. Cerny3711114113
WAug 28 · 10:30D. Bochnak521110911113M. Cerny4591211672
WAug 28 · 08:55D. Bochnak47128511113M. Cerny46101111682
WAug 27 · 10:35D. Bochnak4111811113M. Cerny31611681
D. Bochnak10
WSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133LSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:50D. Bochnak1.5011411113D. Hyza2.50311541WSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113WSep 7 · 22:45D. Bochnak1.3311511123P. Benes2.858113101WSep 7 · 21:25P. Benes3.00101171772D. Bochnak1.361281115113WSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 18:55M. Brozek2.751111123D. Bochnak1.4096100WSep 6 · 09:54D. Vesecky2.508990D. Bochnak1.501111113LSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113
M. Cerny10
LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza2.75511841M. Cerny1.4011911113WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 6 · 09:25D. Bochnak1.619640M. Cerny2.201111113
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