TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13125054
Played Sep 13Finished
Marek Kulisek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119811115114
Martin Cerny
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Kulisek above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-4
Point 82 set 5, 8-4 — our read held Martin Cerny at 54.0%
82 points drawn · the score is 3 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Marek Kulisek 53–40 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 40 of their 93 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 14:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-40 in 93
Kulisek
Correct
gap of 13 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kulisek 1690 vs Cerny 1901
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kulisek 60% vs Cerny 80%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kulisek 40% vs Cerny 70%
Cerny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kulisek -2 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKulisek 2.00 / Cerny 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13125054
Kulisek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 104 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back24% 38 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 87
Cerny1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 167 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 118 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKulisek8wins
AwayCerny2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKulisek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKulisek100%5 of 5
AwayCerny40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kulisek5Cerny5n = 10split evenly
S2Kulisek6Cerny4n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S3Kulisek3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Kulisek9Cerny1n = 10Kulisek took 9 of 10
S5Kulisek5Cerny2n = 7Kulisek took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKulisekCernyK − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.838.7+4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKulisekCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 877 vs 482 / 83744.7%57.6%392 / 877 vs 482 / 837Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyKulisek 2.00/Cerny 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kulisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 19:25M. Kulisek50811911113M. Cerny4611811792
WAug 9 · 20:50M. Kulisek50911811113M. Cerny3411711232
WJul 9 · 10:55M. Kulisek3811511113M. Cerny31511781
WJul 4 · 21:25M. Kulisek49119711113M. Cerny3971111732
WJun 15 · 16:55M. Kulisek3811115113M. Cerny33681181
LJun 13 · 14:30M. Kulisek3949111142M. Cerny42111172113
LJun 13 · 11:25M. Kulisek3561151122M. Cerny51119119113
WJun 12 · 21:20M. Kulisek43111011113M. Cerny30712291
WJun 12 · 19:50M. Kulisek46111194113M. Cerny3224111142
WJun 6 · 20:55M. Kulisek40412211113M. Cerny49111011892
M. Kulisek10
LSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 9 · 21:50M. Kulisek2.0078100M. Brozek1.731111123WSep 9 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.1041111113M. Brozek1.67118651WSep 9 · 19:20M. Sulc2.003580M. Kulisek1.731111113WSep 9 · 18:50O. Fiklik2.006660M. Kulisek1.731111113LSep 7 · 22:14M. Kulisek2.20116881M. Brozek1.6181111113WSep 7 · 20:55M. Brozek1.619990M. Kulisek2.201111113LSep 7 · 20:25D. Bochnak1.171171113113M. Kulisek4.5071161532LSep 7 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.50119181P. Benes1.5071111113LSep 6 · 21:48D. Hyza1.3611114113M. Kulisek3.00861191
M. Cerny10
WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza2.75511841M. Cerny1.4011911113WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480
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