TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122286
Played Sep 13Finished
Daniel Hyza
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511119811411––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Hyza above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 57.8%
70 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Hyza 10–17 Martin Cerny Daniel Hyza has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Cerny
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hyza 1652 vs Cerny 1883
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hyza 40% vs Cerny 60%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hyza 70% vs Cerny 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hyza +1 · Cerny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHyza 2.75 / Cerny 1.40
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Cerny)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13122286
Hyza2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog30% won 17 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Cerny1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 167 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 118 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHyza0wins
AwayCerny10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHyzan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCerny100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hyza2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Hyza4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Hyza2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Hyza2Cerny5n = 7Cerny took 5 of 7
S5Hyza0Cerny3n = 3Cerny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHyzaCernyH − CBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match30.741.0−10.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHyzaCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 412 vs 481 / 83556.8%57.6%234 / 412 vs 481 / 835Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyHyza 2.75/Cerny 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza28511841M. Cerny4211911113
LAug 9 · 19:50D. Hyza336111061M. Cerny4211812113
LJun 25 · 15:50D. Hyza205780M. Cerny331111113
LJun 19 · 10:55D. Hyza185760M. Cerny331111113
LJun 9 · 16:25D. Hyza4311591172M. Cerny49911117113
LMay 11 · 10:09D. Hyza39310111142M. Cerny46111293113
LMay 11 · 08:25D. Hyza226880M. Cerny331111113
LApr 8 · 19:55D. Hyza29411771M. Cerny4111811113
LFeb 8 · 23:29D. Hyza31116681M. Cerny4291111113
LFeb 8 · 21:25D. Hyza4441111992M. Cerny49118811113
D. Hyza10
WSep 11 · 13:55V. Jr1.903111021D. Hyza1.8011912113LSep 11 · 13:25D. Hyza1.91113741A. Rek1.8071111113LSep 11 · 11:55V. Jr2.6361111133D. Hyza1.441195111LSep 11 · 11:25O. Fiklik2.25811128143D. Hyza1.571161011122WSep 7 · 17:55D. Hyza1.4511511113M. Sulc2.60711881WSep 7 · 16:50M. Sulc2.50891141D. Hyza1.5011117113WSep 7 · 15:50D. Hyza1.281111113M. Sochor3.508590WSep 7 · 14:20A. Rek1.67511591D. Hyza2.1011711113WSep 6 · 21:48D. Hyza1.3611114113M. Kulisek3.00861191WSep 6 · 20:50M. Kulisek2.7577110D. Hyza1.401111133
M. Cerny10
WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530WSep 8 · 10:55D. Vesecky2.20118551M. Cerny1.6191111113WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny1.301112113J. Kocab3.1581090
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