TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131729
Played Sep 14Finished
David Bochnak
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118911411––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched — 70.5% is still 70.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
70.5%
70.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held David Bochnak at 70.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 53–30 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 30 of their 83 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Bochnak beat Zacharda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (67%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-30 in 83
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 23 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1837 vs Zacharda 1641
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 80% vs Zacharda 60%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 60% vs Zacharda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak +1 · Zacharda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Bochnak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zacharda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.36 / Zacharda 2.80
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Bochnak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13131729
Bochnak1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 126 of 205
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 96 of 120
Zacharda2.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 20 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back5% 2 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak7wins
AwayZacharda3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak85.7%6 of 7
AwayZacharda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak7Zacharda3n = 10Bochnak took 7 of 10
S2Bochnak5Zacharda5n = 10split evenly
S3Bochnak4Zacharda6n = 10Zacharda took 6 of 10
S4Bochnak6Zacharda3n = 9Bochnak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakZachardaB − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.337.6+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 591 vs 123 / 26362.3%46.8%368 / 591 vs 123 / 263Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.36/Zacharda 2.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.5%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak48111115113J. Zacharda40781781
LSep 13 · 20:25D. Bochnak331166101J. Zacharda4281111123
WSep 4 · 22:09D. Bochnak52991111123J. Zacharda45111194102
WSep 4 · 20:55D. Bochnak511410511113J. Zacharda47121211572
LSep 3 · 22:33D. Bochnak401491161J. Zacharda4216114113
WSep 3 · 21:25D. Bochnak4212811113J. Zacharda381011981
WAug 30 · 08:25D. Bochnak331111113J. Zacharda163760
WJul 16 · 16:55D. Bochnak3913114113J. Zacharda321141161
LApr 17 · 16:55D. Bochnak34911681J. Zacharda3911611113
WApr 10 · 16:55D. Bochnak4111118113J. Zacharda35961191
D. Bochnak10
WSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781LSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113WSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740WSep 13 · 21:59D. Bochnak1.201112113M. Kulisek4.3321060WSep 13 · 20:55M. Kulisek4.336720D. Bochnak1.201111113LSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101LSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153WSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133LSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:50D. Bochnak1.5011411113D. Hyza2.50311541
J. Zacharda10
LSep 14 · 20:55D. Bochnak1.36111115113J. Zacharda3.00781781WSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113WSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101WSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113
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