TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128080
Played Sep 14Finished
Jachym Zacharda
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
131113151141210––
Martin Cerny
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Zacharda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJachym Zacharda above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 89 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jachym Zacharda at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Zacharda 15–18 Martin Cerny Jachym Zacharda has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:00What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-18 in 33
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zacharda 1612 vs Cerny 1893
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 282 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zacharda 60% vs Cerny 40%
Zacharda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zacharda 40% vs Cerny 70%
Cerny
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zacharda +1 · Cerny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZacharda 2.63 / Cerny 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13128080
Zacharda2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 20 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back5% 2 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Cerny1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite67% won 170 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it98% 85 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it86% 121 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZacharda3wins
AwayCerny7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZacharda100%3 of 3
AwayCerny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zacharda3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Zacharda4Cerny6n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Zacharda0Cerny10n = 10Cerny took 10 of 10
S4Zacharda2Cerny2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricZachardaCernyZ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.035.7−8.7per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZachardaCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 260 vs 484 / 84146.5%57.6%121 / 260 vs 484 / 841Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyZacharda 2.63/Cerny 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 22:30J. Zacharda4111118113M. Cerny33951181
LSep 13 · 21:25J. Zacharda148330M. Cerny331111113
LSep 11 · 13:30J. Zacharda2163120M. Cerny361111143
WSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda49111196123M. Cerny48881111102
LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda1910270M. Cerny341211113
LSep 7 · 10:55J. Zacharda155550M. Cerny331111113
LSep 4 · 19:25J. Zacharda185670M. Cerny331111113
WSep 3 · 19:55J. Zacharda4313127113M. Cerny3511101131
LSep 2 · 12:55J. Zacharda168260M. Cerny331111113
LAug 30 · 09:25J. Zacharda341011671M. Cerny3912511113
J. Zacharda10
WSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113WSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113
M. Cerny10
WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102WSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113
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M. Cerny
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