TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126745
Played Sep 13Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911511118811––
Jachym Zacharda
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jachym Zacharda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 57.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 18–15 Jachym Zacharda Jachym Zacharda has won 15 of their 33 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Cerny beat Zacharda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-15 in 33
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 3 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1893 vs Zacharda 1612
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 282 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Zacharda 40%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 70% vs Zacharda 30%
Cerny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Zacharda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.40 / Zacharda 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Cerny)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13126745
Cerny1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As favourite67% won 167 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 118 of 137
Zacharda2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog30% won 18 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny7wins
AwayZacharda3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny100%7 of 7
AwayZacharda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny7Zacharda3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Cerny6Zacharda4n = 10Cerny took 6 of 10
S3Cerny10Zacharda0n = 10Cerny took 10 of 10
S4Cerny2Zacharda2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyZachardaC − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.727.0+8.7per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyZachardaBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 841 vs 121 / 26057.6%46.5%484 / 841 vs 121 / 260Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.40/Zacharda 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zacharda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny33951181J. Zacharda4111118113
WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda148330
WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny361111143J. Zacharda2163120
LSep 11 · 10:20M. Cerny48881111102J. Zacharda49111196123
WSep 8 · 13:25M. Cerny341211113J. Zacharda1910270
WSep 7 · 10:55M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda155550
WSep 4 · 19:25M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda185670
LSep 3 · 19:55M. Cerny3511101131J. Zacharda4313127113
WSep 2 · 12:55M. Cerny331111113J. Zacharda168260
WAug 30 · 09:25M. Cerny3912511113J. Zacharda341011671
M. Cerny10
WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza2.75511841M. Cerny1.4011911113WSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny1.281169131J. Kocab3.5091111153
J. Zacharda10
LSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330WSep 13 · 20:25J. Zacharda3.2581111123D. Bochnak1.331166101WSep 13 · 18:55M. Kulisek2.1012115652J. Zacharda1.671081111113LSep 11 · 13:30M. Cerny1.331111143J. Zacharda3.2563120LSep 11 · 12:20J. Zacharda1.733850J. Kocab2.001111113LSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113WSep 11 · 10:20J. Zacharda2.75111196123M. Cerny1.40881111102LSep 8 · 13:55D. Vesecky1.8011128113J. Zacharda1.919101171LSep 8 · 13:25J. Zacharda2.6310270M. Cerny1.441211113LSep 8 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.61111110133J. Zacharda2.205912111
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