TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143542
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111151161012811
Jan Kocab
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 79.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 24–6 Jan Kocab Jan Kocab has won 6 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Cerny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-6 in 30
Cerny
Wrong
gap of 18 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1857 vs Kocab 1652
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Kocab 80%
Kocab
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 50% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +2 · Kocab -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Cerny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.28 / Kocab 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Cerny)+6.3pp
TT Cup · #13143542
Cerny1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 168 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 119 of 139
Kocab3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny8wins
AwayKocab2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%6 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S2Cerny7Kocab3n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S3Cerny8Kocab2n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S4Cerny3Kocab2n = 5Cerny took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKocabC − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.031.6+6.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 839 vs 126 / 26557.7%47.6%484 / 839 vs 126 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyCerny 1.28/Kocab 3.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 07:20M. Cerny331111113J. Kocab248790
LSep 11 · 11:50M. Cerny391169131J. Kocab4691111153
WSep 7 · 14:30M. Cerny341112113J. Kocab2781090
WSep 7 · 13:25M. Cerny341211113J. Kocab2410680
WAug 31 · 13:25M. Cerny49513812113J. Kocab521111111092
WAug 30 · 07:55M. Cerny331111113J. Kocab205870
WAug 27 · 08:55M. Cerny4491111133J. Kocab341139111
WAug 25 · 10:55M. Cerny331111113J. Kocab207670
WAug 23 · 12:20M. Cerny4011711113J. Kocab23311631
LAug 20 · 22:00M. Cerny4111911642J. Kocab46811511113
M. Cerny10
WSep 17 · 12:50J. Zacharda2.50851281M. Cerny1.50111110113WSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153
J. Kocab10
LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113LSep 13 · 06:20J. Kocab3.403101171D. Bochnak1.3011126113
Upcoming Matches
M. Cerny
J. Kocab
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