TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129149
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Cerny
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611111811––––
Ondrej Kadavy
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:11 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kadavy to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Cerny above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 48 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Ondrej Kadavy at 70.3%
48 points played in total.
H2H Martin Cerny 10–26 Ondrej Kadavy Martin Cerny has won 10 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:11What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-26 in 36
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 16 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1882 vs Kadavy 1683
Cerny
Wrong
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 40% vs Kadavy 20%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 60% vs Kadavy 40%
Cerny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny +1 · Kadavy -4
Kadavy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 3.50 / Kadavy 1.28
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Kadavy)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13129149
Cerny3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Kadavy1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 72 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCerny2wins
AwayKadavy8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKadavy100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny2Kadavy8n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S2Cerny1Kadavy9n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S3Cerny2Kadavy8n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S4Cerny0Kadavy3n = 3Kadavy took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away770%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernyKadavyC − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match26.936.8−9.9per matchSweeps07−73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 843 vs 176 / 29957.5%58.9%485 / 843 vs 176 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyCerny 3.50/Kadavy 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:50M. Cerny50111189113O. Kadavy4068111142
WSep 4 · 22:40M. Cerny481110113133O. Kadavy48912511112
LSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny2913790O. Kadavy371511113
LJul 12 · 16:25M. Cerny216690O. Kadavy331111113
LJul 10 · 22:45M. Cerny216960O. Kadavy331111113
LJul 10 · 20:25M. Cerny1954100O. Kadavy341111123
LJul 8 · 14:55M. Cerny145450O. Kadavy331111113
LJul 7 · 06:55M. Cerny2381050O. Kadavy341112113
LJul 5 · 13:25M. Cerny29571251O. Kadavy43111110113
LJul 3 · 15:55M. Cerny156810O. Kadavy331111113
M. Cerny10
WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113WSep 13 · 06:50D. Hyza2.75511841M. Cerny1.4011911113
O. Kadavy10
LSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113LSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740LSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc1.831111133O. Kadavy1.8389110LSep 11 · 20:55M. Stusek1.831131111113O. Kadavy1.8313116682WSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113WSep 11 · 19:25O. Kadavy2.1011711113T. Vorisek1.67711861WSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113WSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113LSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.