TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114114
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113311116116118
Ondrej Kadavy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Ondrej Kadavy below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 18–10 Ondrej Kadavy Ondrej Kadavy has won 10 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:22What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kadavy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-10 in 28
Stusek
Correct
gap of 8 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1753 vs Kadavy 1703
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 20% vs Kadavy 80%
Kadavy
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 20% vs Kadavy 70%
Kadavy
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Kadavy +3
Kadavy
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.83 / Kadavy 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kadavy)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114114
Stusek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kadavy1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayKadavy4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek80%4 of 5
AwayKadavy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek5Kadavy5n = 10split evenly
S2Stusek6Kadavy4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S3Stusek6Kadavy4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Stusek4Kadavy3n = 7Stusek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekKadavyS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.0+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekKadavyBasisWin rate · lifetime319 / 681 vs 176 / 29646.8%59.5%319 / 681 vs 176 / 296Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyStusek 1.83/Kadavy 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 20:55M. Stusek—1131111113O. Kadavy—13116682
LAug 14 · 21:58M. Stusek—61111862O. Kadavy—114611113
WAug 14 · 20:55M. Stusek—11114113O. Kadavy—861171
LAug 8 · 19:55M. Stusek—71140O. Kadavy—1113113
LAug 2 · 15:25M. Stusek—115851O. Kadavy—81111113
WJul 28 · 21:55M. Stusek—111311113O. Kadavy—715691
WJul 28 · 20:55M. Stusek—91111153O. Kadavy—1189131
WJul 26 · 13:59M. Stusek—1111113O. Kadavy—6510
LJul 26 · 11:25M. Stusek—511991O. Kadavy—11811113
WJul 25 · 16:25M. Stusek—1111113O. Kadavy—8880
M. Stusek10
LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113LSep 9 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.441111113M. Stusek2.639590LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890
O. Kadavy10
WSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113WSep 11 · 19:25O. Kadavy2.1011711113T. Vorisek1.67711861WSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113WSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113LSep 11 · 10:50J. Kocab3.40115811113O. Kadavy1.3051111492LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy1.43912511112M. Cerny2.651110113133WSep 4 · 21:25M. Cerny4.3313790O. Kadavy1.201511113WSep 4 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.53116711113J. Zacharda2.3811111292WSep 4 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.00611611O. Kadavy1.7311811113
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