TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106480
Played Sep 9Finished
Jaromir Zlamal
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115119––––
Martin Stusek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeJaromir Zlamal to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Zlamal above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jaromir Zlamal at 65.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Zlamal 92–44 Martin Stusek Martin Stusek has won 44 of their 136 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Zlamal beat Stusek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zlamal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
92-44 in 136
Zlamal
Correct
gap of 48 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zlamal 1864 vs Stusek 1732
Zlamal
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zlamal 60% vs Stusek 20%
Zlamal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zlamal 80% vs Stusek 40%
Zlamal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zlamal -1 · Stusek -3
Stusek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Zlamal) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZlamal 1.44 / Stusek 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Zlamal)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13106480
Zlamal1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 87 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it98% 48 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it88% 65 of 74
Stusek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZlamal9wins
AwayStusek1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZlamal leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZlamal100%7 of 7
AwayStusek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zlamal7Stusek3n = 10Zlamal took 7 of 10
S2Zlamal6Stusek4n = 10Zlamal took 6 of 10
S3Zlamal9Stusek1n = 10Zlamal took 9 of 10
S4Zlamal5Stusek1n = 6Zlamal took 5 of 6
S5Zlamal2Stusek1n = 3Zlamal took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZlamalStusekZ − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.530.8+8.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZlamalStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 330 vs 320 / 68461.5%46.8%203 / 330 vs 320 / 684Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZlamalZlamal 1.44/Stusek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Zlamal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zlamal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 19:55J. Zlamal—961111113M. Stusek—11114942
WSep 8 · 21:25J. Zlamal—11911113M. Stusek—811681
LSep 4 · 18:50J. Zlamal—96111162M. Stusek—111175113
WSep 1 · 19:55J. Zlamal—1111113M. Stusek—3850
WAug 26 · 20:25J. Zlamal—1111113M. Stusek—9730
WAug 26 · 19:55J. Zlamal—1111113M. Stusek—9730
WAug 24 · 20:55J. Zlamal—1211143M. Stusek—102120
WAug 11 · 19:55J. Zlamal—71111113M. Stusek—115461
WJul 31 · 19:20J. Zlamal—131112113M. Stusek—1181461
WJul 28 · 19:55J. Zlamal—115111113M. Stusek—91191182
J. Zlamal10
LSep 9 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.7368120T. Vorisek2.001111143WSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 8 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.601113113P. Silhan2.2071170WSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113WSep 8 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.6111911113T. Vorisek2.20911961WSep 8 · 18:55P. Silhan2.2571181332J. Zlamal1.571191111113WSep 4 · 21:50J. Zlamal1.801211113T. Vorisek1.9110920WSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751WSep 4 · 19:20T. Vorisek2.204950J. Zlamal1.611111113
M. Stusek10
LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.