TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103825
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911117611911––
Filip Cernota
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 66–59 Filip Cernota Filip Cernota has won 59 of their 125 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:56What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
66-59 in 125
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 7 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1745 vs Cernota 1717
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 20% vs Cernota 80%
Cernota
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Cernota 60%
Cernota
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -2 · Cernota +3
Cernota
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.83 / Cernota 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernota)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13103825
Stusek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Cernota1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek6wins
AwayCernota4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStusek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Cernota4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek5Cernota5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek3Cernota7n = 10Cernota took 7 of 10
S4Stusek4Cernota5n = 9Cernota took 5 of 9
S5Stusek4Cernota1n = 5Stusek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekCernotaS − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.641.7−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 683 vs 103 / 18446.9%56%320 / 683 vs 103 / 184Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaStusek 1.83/Cernota 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek—1111129113F. Cernota—39141142
WAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek—8101112113F. Cernota—111291062
WAug 11 · 22:05M. Stusek—11127113F. Cernota—9101181
LAug 11 · 18:55M. Stusek—88130F. Cernota—1111153
WAug 7 · 19:20M. Stusek—118119113F. Cernota—41161172
LMay 8 · 08:25M. Stusek—511361F. Cernota—11911113
WMay 5 · 18:55M. Stusek—111359123F. Cernota—6111111102
LMay 3 · 06:55M. Stusek—112111132F. Cernota—131125113
LApr 9 · 22:30M. Stusek—116921F. Cernota—31111113
WApr 9 · 18:55M. Stusek—11138173F. Cernota—81111151
M. Stusek10
LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113
F. Cernota10
WSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062
Upcoming Matches
M. Stusek
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F. Cernota
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