TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103818
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Vorisek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6111113811––––
Filip Cernota
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Vorisek above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 60 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Cernota at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vorisek 46–106 Filip Cernota Tomas Vorisek has won 46 of their 152 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-106 in 152
Cernota
Correct
gap of 60 in 152, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorisek 1779 vs Cernota 1686
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorisek 40% vs Cernota 80%
Cernota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorisek 40% vs Cernota 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorisek +1 · Cernota +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorisek 2.00 / Cernota 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernota)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13103818
Vorisek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 91 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Cernota1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorisek5wins
AwayCernota5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorisek50%2 of 4
AwayCernota50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorisek4Cernota6n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Vorisek6Cernota4n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S3Vorisek2Cernota8n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S4Vorisek2Cernota6n = 8Cernota took 6 of 8
S5Vorisek4Cernota0n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorisekCernotaV − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.2−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorisekCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime418 / 812 vs 102 / 18351.5%55.7%418 / 812 vs 102 / 183Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.240.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaVorisek 2.00/Cernota 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 20:25T. Vorisek—115741F. Cernota—71111113
WAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek—111313133F. Cernota—21115111
LAug 17 · 21:25T. Vorisek—116461F. Cernota—51111113
WAug 11 · 20:25T. Vorisek—812115113F. Cernota—111041182
WAug 7 · 18:20T. Vorisek—6111112113F. Cernota—11961472
LMay 8 · 10:28T. Vorisek—6780F. Cernota—1111113
WMay 8 · 06:55T. Vorisek—1211910133F. Cernota—1041112112
WMay 5 · 20:25T. Vorisek—911818113F. Cernota—119111692
LMay 3 · 10:35T. Vorisek—9111071F. Cernota—11712113
LMay 3 · 08:25T. Vorisek—71270F. Cernota—1114113
T. Vorisek10
WSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 20:55P. Silhan2.1011511153T. Vorisek1.676114131LSep 8 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.6111911113T. Vorisek2.20911961WSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120LSep 7 · 18:25D. Jicha2.101311113T. Vorisek1.6711760LSep 7 · 17:25D. Jicha1.731211113T. Vorisek2.0010660WSep 7 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.731411113T. Flicek2.0012780WSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890
F. Cernota10
WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101LAug 24 · 18:55M. Stusek2.388101112113F. Cernota1.53111291062LAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy2.10101111113F. Cernota1.67125591
Upcoming Matches
T. Vorisek
F. Cernota
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