TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101073
Played Sep 8Finished
Tomas Vorisek
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711311116611––
Martin Stusek
Away
1.11
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Vorisek above · Martin Stusek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 66 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Vorisek 162–143 Martin Stusek Martin Stusek has won 143 of their 305 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Vorisek beat Stusek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Stusek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
162-143 in 305
Vorisek
Wrong
gap of 19 in 305, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorisek 1765 vs Stusek 1766
Stusek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorisek 20% vs Stusek 40%
Stusek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorisek 40% vs Stusek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorisek -2 · Stusek -3
Stusek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (40%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorisek 6.00 / Stusek 1.11
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Stusek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13101073
Vorisek6.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 92 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Stusek1.11
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 69 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 55 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorisek5wins
AwayStusek5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorisek100%5 of 5
AwayStusek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorisek5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S2Vorisek5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S3Vorisek5Stusek5n = 10split evenly
S4Vorisek2Stusek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorisekStusekV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match31.832.5−0.7per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorisekStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 811 vs 320 / 68151.4%47%417 / 811 vs 320 / 681Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekVorisek 6.00/Stusek 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek—731161M. Stusek—11116113
WSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek—1111143M. Stusek—87120
LSep 6 · 17:55T. Vorisek—7890M. Stusek—1111113
LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek—9860M. Stusek—1111113
WSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek—1112113M. Stusek—71070
WSep 1 · 21:58T. Vorisek—1111133M. Stusek—99110
LSep 1 · 20:55T. Vorisek—811991M. Stusek—11811113
LAug 30 · 18:30T. Vorisek—4280M. Stusek—1111113
WAug 30 · 15:25T. Vorisek—11715113M. Stusek—6111321
WAug 28 · 20:50T. Vorisek—13119113M. Stusek—1191131
T. Vorisek10
LSep 8 · 20:55P. Silhan2.1011511153T. Vorisek1.676114131LSep 8 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.6111911113T. Vorisek2.20911961WSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120LSep 7 · 18:25D. Jicha2.101311113T. Vorisek1.6711760LSep 7 · 17:25D. Jicha1.731211113T. Vorisek2.0010660WSep 7 · 16:25T. Vorisek1.731411113T. Flicek2.0012780WSep 7 · 14:55V. Benak2.008750T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113
M. Stusek10
LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890WSep 6 · 16:20D. Jicha1.611177111M. Stusek2.2061111133WSep 6 · 15:50T. Vorisek1.839860M. Stusek1.831111113LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.831112113M. Stusek1.8371070WSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113
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