TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113535
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14124116111210711
Filip Strejc
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stusek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Filip Strejc below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Stusek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 69–67 Filip Strejc Filip Strejc has won 67 of their 136 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
69-67 in 136
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 136, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1723 vs Strejc 1665
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 20% vs Strejc 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 30% vs Strejc 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -4 · Strejc -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stusek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strejc form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.73 / Strejc 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stusek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13113535
Stusek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 70 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it90% 43 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 56 of 76
Strejc2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 52 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayStrejc5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrejc75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek6Strejc4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek4Strejc6n = 10Strejc took 6 of 10
S3Stusek5Strejc5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek3Strejc2n = 5Stusek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekStrejcStusek − StrejcBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.836.6−0.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekStrejcBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 685 vs 216 / 47646.7%45.4%320 / 685 vs 216 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.73/Strejc 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Strejc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek—101080F. Strejc—1212113
WSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek—1411113F. Strejc—12980
WSep 4 · 19:50M. Stusek—1112113F. Strejc—71080
WAug 30 · 17:25M. Stusek—1211113F. Strejc—10870
WAug 28 · 21:40M. Stusek—1161113113F. Strejc—131151182
WAug 28 · 19:50M. Stusek—111112113F. Strejc—951481
LAug 26 · 22:28M. Stusek—1110781F. Strejc—91211113
LAug 26 · 21:25M. Stusek—1041381F. Strejc—121111113
LAug 23 · 08:55M. Stusek—9740F. Strejc—1111113
LAug 9 · 18:03M. Stusek—12461152F. Strejc—1011114113
M. Stusek10
WSep 11 · 19:55M. Stusek1.83118116113T. Vorisek1.8361141182LSep 9 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.441111113M. Stusek2.639590LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890
F. Strejc10
LSep 6 · 17:25D. Jicha1.6511118113F. Strejc2.10991181LSep 6 · 16:50F. Strejc2.25119771T. Vorisek1.5781111113LSep 6 · 15:20D. Jicha1.73711311183F. Strejc2.00118111162WSep 6 · 14:50M. Stusek1.80101080F. Strejc1.911212113LSep 4 · 21:20M. Stusek1.831411113F. Strejc1.8712980LSep 4 · 20:50J. Zlamal1.4461111113F. Strejc2.63116751LSep 4 · 19:50F. Strejc1.8371080M. Stusek1.831112113LSep 4 · 18:20T. Vorisek1.61681113113F. Strejc2.20111111182WSep 2 · 17:54T. Flicek1.91912641F. Strejc1.80111011113LSep 2 · 16:55F. Strejc1.8391121182T. Flicek1.83119116113
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