TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114161
Played Sep 11Finished
Martin Stusek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811114611118
Tomas Vorisek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Vorisek at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 143–162 Tomas Vorisek Martin Stusek has won 143 of their 305 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:23What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vorisek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
143-162 in 305
Vorisek
Wrong
gap of 19 in 305, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1710 vs Vorisek 1741
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 0% vs Vorisek 40%
Vorisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 20% vs Vorisek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek -5 · Vorisek -2
Stusek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vorisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.83 / Vorisek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorisek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114161
Stusek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Vorisek1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek100%5 of 5
AwayVorisek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S2Stusek5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S4Stusek2Vorisek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekVorisekS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.531.8+0.7per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime318 / 681 vs 415 / 81146.7%51.2%318 / 681 vs 415 / 811Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekStusek 1.83/Vorisek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stusek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 22:00M. Stusek—11116113T. Vorisek—731161
LSep 8 · 19:25M. Stusek—87120T. Vorisek—1111143
WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek—1111113T. Vorisek—7890
WSep 6 · 15:50M. Stusek—1111113T. Vorisek—9860
LSep 4 · 20:20M. Stusek—71070T. Vorisek—1112113
LSep 1 · 21:58M. Stusek—99110T. Vorisek—1111133
WSep 1 · 20:55M. Stusek—11811113T. Vorisek—811991
WAug 30 · 18:30M. Stusek—1111113T. Vorisek—4280
LAug 30 · 15:25M. Stusek—6111321T. Vorisek—11715113
LAug 28 · 20:50M. Stusek—1191131T. Vorisek—13119113
M. Stusek10
LSep 11 · 18:55M. Stusek1.7314461272F. Strejc2.0012111110113LSep 9 · 22:00J. Zlamal1.441111113M. Stusek2.639590LSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113LSep 9 · 19:55M. Stusek2.6311114942J. Zlamal1.44961111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 21:25M. Stusek2.63811681J. Zlamal1.4411911113LSep 8 · 19:55P. Silhan2.00781111113M. Stusek1.7311113862LSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120WSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890
T. Vorisek10
LSep 11 · 19:25O. Kadavy2.1011711113T. Vorisek1.67711861LSep 9 · 22:30F. Cernota1.6711129113T. Vorisek2.108101151WSep 9 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.7368120T. Vorisek2.001111143LSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 20:55P. Silhan2.1011511153T. Vorisek1.676114131LSep 8 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.6111911113T. Vorisek2.20911961WSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120LSep 6 · 17:55M. Stusek2.051111113T. Vorisek1.707890
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