TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106479
Played Sep 9Finished
Filip Cernota
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210911115––
Tomas Vorisek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Cernota to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Cernota above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 77 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Filip Cernota at 64.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Filip Cernota 107–46 Tomas Vorisek Tomas Vorisek has won 46 of their 153 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Cernota beat Vorisek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:53What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
107-46 in 153
Cernota
Correct
gap of 61 in 153, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernota 1730 vs Vorisek 1768
Vorisek
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernota 80% vs Vorisek 40%
Cernota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernota 70% vs Vorisek 40%
Cernota
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernota +4 · Vorisek +1
Cernota
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cernota) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernota 1.67 / Vorisek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Cernota)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13106479
Cernota1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 15 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Vorisek2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 91 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back26% 23 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernota5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernota50%3 of 6
AwayVorisek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernota6Vorisek4n = 10Cernota took 6 of 10
S2Cernota4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S3Cernota8Vorisek2n = 10Cernota took 8 of 10
S4Cernota6Vorisek2n = 8Cernota took 6 of 8
S5Cernota0Vorisek4n = 4Vorisek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernotaVorisekC − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.139.7+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernotaVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 185 vs 419 / 81456.2%51.5%104 / 185 vs 419 / 814Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaCernota 1.67/Vorisek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Cernota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 20:25F. Cernota—1113113T. Vorisek—61180
WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota—71111113T. Vorisek—115741
LAug 24 · 21:25F. Cernota—21115111T. Vorisek—111313133
WAug 17 · 21:25F. Cernota—51111113T. Vorisek—116461
LAug 11 · 20:25F. Cernota—111041182T. Vorisek—812115113
LAug 7 · 18:20F. Cernota—11961472T. Vorisek—6111112113
WMay 8 · 10:28F. Cernota—1111113T. Vorisek—6780
LMay 8 · 06:55F. Cernota—1041112112T. Vorisek—1211910133
LMay 5 · 20:25F. Cernota—119111692T. Vorisek—911818113
WMay 3 · 10:35F. Cernota—11712113T. Vorisek—9111071
F. Cernota10
WSep 9 · 20:55M. Stusek1.83911691F. Cernota1.8311711113WSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 19:25F. Cernota2.20124115113J. Zlamal1.61101191172WSep 1 · 22:30J. Zlamal1.801361191F. Cernota1.9015116113LSep 1 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.671111113F. Cernota2.106990WSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WSep 1 · 18:55M. Stusek1.9191111972F. Cernota1.80115611113LAug 24 · 22:05M. Stusek1.911111129113F. Cernota1.8039141142LAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111WAug 24 · 20:25F. Cernota2.0011118123J. Zlamal1.738711101
T. Vorisek10
WSep 9 · 21:25J. Zlamal1.7368120T. Vorisek2.001111143LSep 9 · 20:25T. Vorisek2.0061180F. Cernota1.731113113WSep 9 · 18:55M. Stusek2.007760T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 8 · 22:00T. Vorisek6.00731161M. Stusek1.1111116113LSep 8 · 20:55P. Silhan2.1011511153T. Vorisek1.676114131LSep 8 · 20:25J. Zlamal1.6111911113T. Vorisek2.20911961WSep 8 · 19:25T. Vorisek1.671111143M. Stusek2.1087120LSep 7 · 18:25D. Jicha2.101311113T. Vorisek1.6711760LSep 1 · 20:25F. Cernota1.7371111113T. Vorisek2.00115741WAug 24 · 21:25T. Vorisek2.10111313133F. Cernota1.6721115111
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