TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143532
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
61191113111311119
Jan Kocab
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:12 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Benes to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Benes at 54.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 20–23 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-23 in 43
Kocab
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1672 vs Kocab 1652
Benes
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 20% vs Kocab 80%
Kocab
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Kocab 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -4 · Kocab -1
Benes
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Benes)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.73 / Kocab 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Benes)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13143532
Benes1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 72 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it75% 47 of 63
Kocab2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 26 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes8wins
AwayKocab2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%8 of 8
AwayKocabn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes8Kocab2n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes5Kocab1n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.631.1+5.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 563 vs 126 / 26547.4%47.6%267 / 563 vs 126 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesBenes 1.73/Kocab 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Benes won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 10:30P. Benes3643111172J. Kocab48111169113
LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes36911971J. Kocab4211911113
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes4111611133J. Kocab389117111
WSep 3 · 06:55P. Benes3911116113J. Kocab32591171
WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes341112113J. Kocab1851030
WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes341112113J. Kocab2461080
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes4011117113J. Kocab34881171
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes331111113J. Kocab248880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes4011711113J. Kocab32811491
WAug 25 · 12:55P. Benes331111113J. Kocab199550
P. Benes10
LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480
J. Kocab10
WSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113
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