TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13146666
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111210511115511
Jan Kocab
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Jan Kocab below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 89 set 5, 5-11
89 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 21–23 Jan Kocab Pavel Benes has won 21 of their 44 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocab)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocab form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 1.91 / Kocab 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocab)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13146666
Benes1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Kocab1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 51 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes8wins
AwayKocab2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes100%7 of 7
AwayKocab66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S2Benes6Kocab4n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S3Benes7Kocab3n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Benes6Kocab1n = 7Benes took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesKocabB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.5+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesKocabBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 564 vs 127 / 26747.5%47.6%268 / 564 vs 127 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocabBenes 1.91/Kocab 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kocab · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes52691313113J. Kocab531111111192
LSep 15 · 10:30P. Benes3643111172J. Kocab48111169113
LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes36911971J. Kocab4211911113
WSep 3 · 10:40P. Benes4111611133J. Kocab389117111
WSep 3 · 06:55P. Benes3911116113J. Kocab32591171
WSep 1 · 10:30P. Benes341112113J. Kocab1851030
WSep 1 · 07:55P. Benes341112113J. Kocab2461080
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Benes4011117113J. Kocab34881171
WAug 31 · 11:25P. Benes331111113J. Kocab248880
WAug 25 · 13:53P. Benes4011711113J. Kocab32811491
P. Benes10
WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 17 · 10:20P. Benes3.0055111182M. Cerny1.36111159113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480
J. Kocab10
LSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192WSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113LSep 17 · 10:50J. Kocab1.83311681J. Zacharda1.8311311113WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172WSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 08:25J. Kocab1.7311911113M. Brozek2.00911491WSep 15 · 06:55A. Rek1.83261141J. Kocab1.8311118113LSep 13 · 09:28D. Hyza1.831111113J. Kocab1.838380LSep 13 · 08:20J. Kocab1.80119931D. Hyza1.9191111113LSep 13 · 07:20J. Kocab3.508790M. Cerny1.281111113
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