TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143219
Played Sep 17Finished
Pavel Benes
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511511115119811
Martin Cerny
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Cerny to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Benes above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 87 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Cerny at 61.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Benes 17–49 Martin Cerny Pavel Benes has won 17 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cerny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-49 in 66
Cerny
Correct
gap of 32 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Benes 1693 vs Cerny 1850
Cerny
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Benes 40% vs Cerny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Benes 30% vs Cerny 50%
Cerny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Benes -2 · Cerny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Cerny) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBenes 3.00 / Cerny 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Cerny)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13143219
Benes3.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 50 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 49
Cerny1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 168 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it98% 83 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it86% 119 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBenes1wins
AwayCerny9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCerny leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBenes33.3%1 of 3
AwayCerny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Benes3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S2Benes2Cerny8n = 10Cerny took 8 of 10
S3Benes3Cerny7n = 10Cerny took 7 of 10
S4Benes2Cerny5n = 7Cerny took 5 of 7
S5Benes1Cerny2n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBenesCernyB − CBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.741.6−8.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBenesCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 561 vs 486 / 84547.6%57.5%267 / 561 vs 486 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernyBenes 3.00/Cerny 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Cerny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 14:25P. Benes208480M. Cerny331111113
LSep 8 · 12:25P. Benes135530M. Cerny331111113
LSep 2 · 14:25P. Benes3710412111M. Cerny46121110133
WSep 2 · 12:25P. Benes461131011113M. Cerny4141112952
LAug 31 · 12:25P. Benes3891121152M. Cerny43115115113
LAug 28 · 07:55P. Benes33611971M. Cerny4211911113
LAug 26 · 12:20P. Benes4011711832M. Cerny46511811113
LAug 25 · 12:25P. Benes2481150M. Cerny351113113
LAug 19 · 10:30P. Benes451172071M. Cerny53131118113
LAug 19 · 07:55P. Benes311127111M. Cerny4491111133
P. Benes10
LSep 17 · 11:20P. Benes2.0041050J. Zacharda1.731112113LSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab2.00111169113P. Benes1.7343111172LSep 15 · 09:25P. Benes1.67911971J. Kocab2.1011911113WSep 15 · 07:55A. Rek1.614111081P. Benes2.2011912113WSep 15 · 07:25M. Brozek1.7311118662P. Benes2.00681111113LSep 14 · 17:25D. Hyza1.91111012123P. Benes1.8051210101LSep 14 · 16:25P. Benes1.83911571M. Brozek1.8311511113LSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:55D. Vesecky1.53861181P. Benes2.3811117113LSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530
M. Cerny10
LSep 17 · 11:50M. Cerny1.28611111082J. Kocab3.50115612113WSep 14 · 22:15O. Kadavy1.309711101M. Cerny3.4011119123LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 8 · 14:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.808480WSep 8 · 12:25M. Cerny1.401111113P. Benes2.755530
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