TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131723
Played Sep 14Finished
Ondrej Kadavy
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9117111191012––
Martin Cerny
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Martin Cerny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12
80 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 27–10 Martin Cerny Martin Cerny has won 10 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kadavy beat Cerny 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Kadavy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cerny form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.30 / Cerny 3.40
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Kadavy)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13131723
Kadavy1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 72 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it85% 52 of 61
Cerny3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy8wins
AwayCerny2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy100%8 of 8
AwayCernyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy8Cerny2n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S2Kadavy9Cerny1n = 10Kadavy took 9 of 10
S3Kadavy8Cerny2n = 10Kadavy took 8 of 10
S4Kadavy3Cerny0n = 3Kadavy took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavyCernyK − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.826.9+9.9per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyCernyBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 300 vs 485 / 84459%57.5%177 / 300 vs 485 / 844Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.30/Cerny 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.5%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 21:25O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny156180
LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy4068111142M. Cerny50111189113
LSep 4 · 22:40O. Kadavy48912511112M. Cerny481110113133
WSep 4 · 21:25O. Kadavy371511113M. Cerny2913790
WJul 12 · 16:25O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny216690
WJul 10 · 22:45O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny216960
WJul 10 · 20:25O. Kadavy341111123M. Cerny1954100
WJul 8 · 14:55O. Kadavy331111113M. Cerny145450
WJul 7 · 06:55O. Kadavy341112113M. Cerny2381050
WJul 5 · 13:25O. Kadavy43111110113M. Cerny29571251
O. Kadavy10
WSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113LSep 14 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.44118511J. Zacharda2.6341111113LSep 14 · 18:55D. Bochnak2.101211113O. Kadavy1.6710740LSep 11 · 22:33F. Strejc1.831111133O. Kadavy1.8389110LSep 11 · 20:55M. Stusek1.831131111113O. Kadavy1.8313116682WSep 11 · 20:25F. Strejc1.8371161192O. Kadavy1.83119117113WSep 11 · 19:25O. Kadavy2.1011711113T. Vorisek1.67711861WSep 11 · 14:00J. Kocab2.6061181172O. Kadavy1.45119119113LSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113WSep 11 · 11:20J. Zacharda2.635830O. Kadavy1.441111113
M. Cerny10
LSep 14 · 21:25M. Cerny3.506180O. Kadavy1.281111113WSep 14 · 19:55D. Bochnak1.67111212592M. Cerny2.108101411113LSep 14 · 19:25J. Zacharda2.63131311123M. Cerny1.4411154101LSep 13 · 22:30M. Cerny1.40951181J. Zacharda2.7511118113WSep 13 · 21:25M. Cerny1.401111113J. Zacharda2.758330LSep 13 · 19:55M. Kulisek2.00411811113M. Cerny1.7311911542WSep 13 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.735122131M. Cerny2.00111011153LSep 13 · 10:00M. Cerny2.10111130112D. Bochnak1.67341111133WSep 13 · 08:50M. Cerny2.25114811113D. Bochnak1.5761111672WSep 11 · 12:50O. Kadavy1.2568111142M. Cerny3.75111189113
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