TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143375
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1178111159111311
Filip Marat
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Filip Marat at 58.5%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 8–22 Filip Marat Martin Filipek has won 8 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Marat
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-22 in 30
Marat
Wrong
gap of 14 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1521 vs Marat 1455
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Marat 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 70% vs Marat 50%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek -2 · Marat -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Marat) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 2.00 / Marat 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Marat)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13143375
Filipek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 77 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Marat1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 23 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek3wins
AwayMarat7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMarat leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek40%2 of 5
AwayMarat80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S2Filipek5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S3Filipek3Marat7n = 10Marat took 7 of 10
S4Filipek5Marat3n = 8Filipek took 5 of 8
S5Filipek0Marat4n = 4Marat took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekMaratF − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.444.3−2.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 604 vs 235 / 52644.4%44.7%268 / 604 vs 235 / 526Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaratFilipek 2.00/Marat 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Marat · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek4111851162F. Marat46911114113
LAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek491411111032F. Marat561281312113
LJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek189540F. Marat331111113
WJul 20 · 14:25M. Filipek46111310123F. Marat4181112101
LJul 20 · 12:55M. Filipek35991161F. Marat4111118113
LJul 17 · 09:58M. Filipek2891180F. Marat351113113
WJul 17 · 07:55M. Filipek4281211113F. Marat351110861
LJun 17 · 12:25M. Filipek62161191792F. Marat621471119113
WJun 15 · 08:25M. Filipek4111118113F. Marat37991181
LJun 12 · 12:55M. Filipek5288121682F. Marat5711111014113
M. Filipek10
WSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062LSep 16 · 13:30M. Filipek3.0051141192B. Budik1.35117119113LSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251WSep 16 · 11:50M. Filipek1.80911411113B. Budik1.9011711492LSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113WSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982
F. Marat10
LSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat2.104780R. Muller1.651111113LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113
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