TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127029
Played Sep 14Finished
Filip Marat
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111191111012––
Adam Kral
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Adam Kral at 55.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 21–20 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1482 vs Kral 1529
Kral
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 60% vs Kral 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 60% vs Kral 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat +2 · Kral -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 2.00 / Kral 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kral)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13127029
Marat2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back40% 25 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back23% 7 of 31
Kral1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 50 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat5wins
AwayKral5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat50%2 of 4
AwayKral50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat4Kral6n = 10Kral took 6 of 10
S2Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S4Marat5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S5Marat3Kral2n = 5Marat took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratKralM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match47.544.9+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratKralBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 530 vs 405 / 77444.7%52.3%237 / 530 vs 405 / 774Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralMarat 2.00/Kral 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 08:55F. Marat549101311113A. Kral45111211652
LJul 5 · 22:00F. Marat361110961A. Kral4061211113
WJul 5 · 21:25F. Marat47951111113A. Kral4511116982
WJul 3 · 10:35F. Marat571191310143A. Kral526111112122
LJul 3 · 08:55F. Marat541013911112A. Kral521211115133
WJul 2 · 14:20F. Marat4291111113A. Kral33119761
WJun 27 · 11:25F. Marat4111127113A. Kral345101181
LJun 23 · 08:55F. Marat3910118101A. Kral4212711123
LJun 18 · 06:55F. Marat5718622111A. Kral64161124133
LJun 15 · 09:53F. Marat4881111992A. Kral42118111113
F. Marat10
WSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111
A. Kral10
LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123LJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131
Upcoming Matches
F. Marat
Nothing scheduled
A. Kral
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