TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13126495
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411911––––
Adam Kral
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 61.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 23–26 Adam Kral Radek Muller has won 23 of their 49 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-26 in 49
Kral
Correct
gap of 3 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1419 vs Kral 1545
Kral
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Kral 80%
Kral
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 30% vs Kral 70%
Kral
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -2 · Kral +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.83 / Kral 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kral)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13126495
Muller1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kral1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller4wins
AwayKral6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKral leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller50%3 of 6
AwayKral75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Kral4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Muller1Kral9n = 10Kral took 9 of 10
S3Muller7Kral3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S4Muller3Kral5n = 8Kral took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerKralM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.6−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerKralBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 329 vs 405 / 77349.9%52.4%164 / 329 vs 405 / 773Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralMuller 1.83/Kral 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller218490A. Kral331111113
LApr 30 · 06:55R. Muller371311851A. Kral46111311113
LMar 30 · 18:55R. Muller387131171A. Kral4311156113
LJan 27 · 11:30R. Muller33591181A. Kral3611113113
WJan 27 · 07:55R. Muller44111111113A. Kral28913511
LJan 25 · 19:55R. Muller421186171A. Kral5091111193
WJan 20 · 11:30R. Muller50581111153A. Kral47111139132
LJan 20 · 08:55R. Muller46111013482A. Kral549121111113
WJan 15 · 08:55R. Muller4111811113A. Kral32811671
WJan 12 · 10:25R. Muller341111123A. Kral2789100
R. Muller10
LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113
A. Kral10
WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.