TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095152
Played Sep 8Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115113––––
Petr Chlumsky
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 49 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Radek Muller at 58.9%
49 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 7–1 Petr Chlumsky Petr Chlumsky has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:01What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Muller
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1449 vs Chlumsky 1479
Chlumsky
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Chlumsky 60%
Chlumsky
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 30% vs Chlumsky 50%
Chlumsky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -3 · Chlumsky -1
Muller
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.61 / Chlumsky 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Muller)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13095152
Muller1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 41 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it71% 30 of 42
Chlumsky2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 17 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back37% 7 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMuller7wins
AwayChlumsky1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMuller leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller100%6 of 6
AwayChlumskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Chlumsky2n = 8Muller took 6 of 8
S2Muller5Chlumsky3n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S3Muller5Chlumsky3n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S4Muller5Chlumsky1n = 6Muller took 5 of 6
S5Muller2Chlumsky1n = 3Muller took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricMullerChlumskyM − CBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match41.435.9+5.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 333 vs 138 / 29950.2%46.2%167 / 333 vs 138 / 299Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.61/Chlumsky 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 27 · 11:25R. Muller—1111113P. Chlumsky—7930
WJun 27 · 18:10R. Muller—11611113P. Chlumsky—311991
LJun 27 · 15:55R. Muller—1011512102P. Chlumsky—1261110123
WFeb 4 · 11:00R. Muller—1111113P. Chlumsky—8590
WFeb 4 · 08:20R. Muller—11511113P. Chlumsky—711491
WJan 14 · 09:55R. Muller—13311113P. Chlumsky—1111961
WJan 3 · 16:55R. Muller—1116511113P. Chlumsky—131411662
WJan 1 · 17:10R. Muller—111178113P. Chlumsky—88111172
R. Muller10
LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka2.2551161192P. Chlumsky1.57117116113LSep 8 · 07:25P. Chlumsky1.839870R. Jamrich1.831111113WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852WJul 30 · 07:25A. Kral2.2511116792P. Chlumsky1.57971111113
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