TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095236
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Srnka
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511117611116911
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:09 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 88 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 58.9%
88 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:09What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chlumsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Srnka 1585 vs Chlumsky 1464
Srnka
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srnka 40% vs Chlumsky 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srnka 50% vs Chlumsky 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Srnka -1 · Chlumsky -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chlumsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 2.25 / Chlumsky 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chlumsky)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13095236
Srnka2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 35 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back30% 9 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Chlumsky1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 146 vs 138 / 30056.2%46%82 / 146 vs 138 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskySrnka 2.25/Chlumsky 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chlumsky won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Srnka10
WSep 8 · 09:53J. Srnka1.804111011133P. Chlumsky1.91119127112LSep 8 · 07:55J. Srnka1.736990R. Jamrich2.001111113WSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192
P. Chlumsky10
LSep 8 · 09:53J. Srnka1.804111011133P. Chlumsky1.91119127112LSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 07:25P. Chlumsky1.839870R. Jamrich1.831111113WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
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