TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061660
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
15171311116611611
Jan Srnka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:13 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Jan Srnka below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 107 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jan Srnka at 68.5%
107 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 3–6 Jan Srnka Tomas Rein has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Srnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Srnka
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1507 vs Srnka 1619
Srnka
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 40% vs Srnka 60%
Srnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Srnka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -3 · Srnka +2
Rein
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Srnka)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.63 / Srnka 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Srnka)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13061660
Rein2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 97 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Srnka1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwaySrnka6wins
3 of 9 to a deciderSrnka leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein66.7%2 of 3
AwaySrnka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein3Srnka6n = 9Srnka took 6 of 9
S2Rein4Srnka5n = 9Srnka took 5 of 9
S3Rein4Srnka5n = 9Srnka took 5 of 9
S4Rein3Srnka4n = 7Srnka took 4 of 7
S5Rein1Srnka2n = 3Srnka took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricReinSrnkaR − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match36.840.1−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinSrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 827 vs 80 / 14146.7%56.7%386 / 827 vs 80 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaRein 2.63/Srnka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Srnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJun 29 · 08:25T. Rein—8670J. Srnka—1111113
LJun 24 · 11:20T. Rein—512511102J. Srnka—1110117123
WJun 17 · 12:20T. Rein—12111113J. Srnka—1011881
LMay 13 · 11:25T. Rein—911461J. Srnka—11411113
WMay 6 · 11:25T. Rein—11912113J. Srnka—6111081
LApr 24 · 12:25T. Rein—91070J. Srnka—1112113
LJan 29 · 11:05T. Rein—111191082J. Srnka—781112113
WJan 29 · 08:55T. Rein—611138113J. Srnka—117111152
LJan 4 · 07:20T. Rein—691191J. Srnka—11117113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
J. Srnka10
LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:50J. Srnka1.916111110113B. Budik1.7311861262LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113WAug 24 · 13:25J. Srnka1.53211111113M. Filipek2.38234781LAug 24 · 11:55B. Budik1.9551111113J. Srnka1.74117641
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